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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 10:34:41 GMT -5
I saw there was a run on food in Milan now blamed on the virus. I never thought about it before but I wonder if it isn't totally crazy to get one of those prepper 30 day food packs. They are expensive but feeding the family is important. |
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Post by adpz on Feb 24, 2020 10:42:14 GMT -5
My cousin is a virologist on the West Coast - he says it's not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things. The death rate of ~1% is less than many flu strains and that there are other coronaviruses out and about. He's very doubtful about stopping the overall spread but also said he'd expect a vaccine in 12 months or so. He also said they (in Oregon) had not seen any actual case of it yet.
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 11:32:11 GMT -5
My cousin is a virologist on the West Coast - he says it's not really a big deal in the grand scheme of things. The death rate of ~1% is less than many flu strains and that there are other coronaviruses out and about. He's very doubtful about stopping the overall spread but also said he'd expect a vaccine in 12 months or so. He also said they (in Oregon) had not seen any actual case of it yet. I agree in the grand scheme of things. I posted some comparative numbers on the flu early in this thread and if we can believe the numbers out of China then he is probably right. There are a few things that concern me though: If it is truly ~1% then that means if it hits the US as strongly as it is hitting China we would lose about 3+ million people. China would lose 13+ million people. Those are crazy numbers The fact that they aren't lifting restrictions in China means it is probably not under control
People suck and as can be seen with the stock market today they will panic on the slightest news. I can see resources becoming scarce if panic sets in whether the threat is real or not. |
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 11:52:14 GMT -5
Do we really have these 2 shitholes manufacturing most of our medicine? I know India was the top producer of counterfeit meds for a while.
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 14:53:26 GMT -5
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Post by 32Green on Feb 24, 2020 15:21:43 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml |
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 15:22:40 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml My girlfriend and I were considering a cruise for this year. That's not happening. |
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Post by 32Green on Feb 24, 2020 15:31:40 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml My girlfriend and I were considering a cruise for this year. That's not happening. Oh hell no. |
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 16:06:48 GMT -5
Just like the flu
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Post by bxjetfan on Feb 24, 2020 16:26:37 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml You get cancel for any reason insurance? I read about a family that tried to cancel a 50k cruise because of this and they were denied. |
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Post by adpz on Feb 24, 2020 16:45:27 GMT -5
If it is truly ~1% then that means if it hits the US as strongly as it is hitting China we would lose about 3+ million people. If the shit were to hit the fan, there would be serious quarantine procedures. It's likely a huge part of the population would be some sort of self-quarantined away from the corona virus. I don't know how they judge the number of likely infected but it seems this corona virus is as easy to spread as flu. About 8% of the US population is diagnosed with flu every year. Let's say that lots of people self-treat and the number is more like 10%. if we assume no quarantine effect, that's about 30M people that 'could' get the covid-19. And assuming a 1% death rate, that would be 300,000 people. If there is a pronounced quarantine effect AND the 'standard' flu death rate (~.1%) applies - then we would be looking at casualties more like 30,000 and down. Horrific for all involved - quite a panic - but manageable and not end-times-y. |
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Post by adpz on Feb 24, 2020 16:48:51 GMT -5
I'll also add that there is interesting news from Baylor U where a long-developed SARS vaccine is being dusted off. It never went into production because it was only finished in 2016 - years after the last SARS case. It's not a 100% match for covid-19 but the scientists figure it is 80% and could be easily tweaked - at least to make covid-19 much less lethal. Apparently it has already been through some animal trials and could be ramped up with a much-shorter timeframe. I think they were discussing doses commercially available in less than 12 months.
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Post by Trades on Feb 24, 2020 17:28:01 GMT -5
If it is truly ~1% then that means if it hits the US as strongly as it is hitting China we would lose about 3+ million people. If the shit were to hit the fan, there would be serious quarantine procedures. It's likely a huge part of the population would be some sort of self-quarantined away from the corona virus. I don't know how they judge the number of likely infected but it seems this corona virus is as easy to spread as flu. About 8% of the US population is diagnosed with flu every year. Let's say that lots of people self-treat and the number is more like 10%. if we assume no quarantine effect, that's about 30M people that 'could' get the covid-19. And assuming a 1% death rate, that would be 300,000 people. If there is a pronounced quarantine effect AND the 'standard' flu death rate (~.1%) applies - then we would be looking at casualties more like 30,000 and down. Horrific for all involved - quite a panic - but manageable and not end-times-y. Ahh I misunderstood the "death rate" you were talking about. I thought you were saying of population rather than of those that get it. Still a shit load of people. |
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Post by tkasper01 on Feb 24, 2020 18:42:09 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml I am so glad we went last May. Outstanding trip. Loved every minute of it. What parts are you going to? |
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Post by 32Green on Feb 24, 2020 18:48:30 GMT -5
Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml You get cancel for any reason insurance? I read about a family that tried to cancel a 50k cruise because of this and they were denied. I let the wife handle it, told her to insure it. The subject of not going hasnt even come up because she'll blame me for not wanting to go to begin with or some shit. This will end up being my fault either way. Aaaaaaaaaaaand I have a trip planned for April. fml I am so glad we went last May. Outstanding trip. Loved every minute of it. What parts are you going to? Amalfi Coast. Havent heard it mentioned but at this rate, its going there too. |
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