Post by maury77 on Feb 6, 2016 10:47:07 GMT -5
Current salary cap – 135,000,000
Expected cap for 2016 – 150,000,000
CUTS (many thanks to the guys at the Jets Blog for this info)
Quinton Coples - Wait, he was already cut, wasn’t he? Yes, but cutting him last year saves the Jets 7.8 million against the 2016 cap.
Breno Giacomini - arguably the worst starter on the OL last year, but fortunately, RT is a relatively easy space to fill through the draft or FA. Saves 3.8 million.
Cro - CB is one of the deepest positions on the team and Cro’s play last year does not justify paying him 8 million next year. Look for the Jets to pick a CB early in the draft. This move saves another 8 million.
Cumberland - no explanation necessary. Saves 1.9 million.
Kerley - See above. Saves 2.5 million.
New cap number is 111,000,000, leaving us about 39,000,000 in cap space
RESTRUCTURE (I’m basically plagiarizing the guys at the Jets blog here)
Brick - I thought about cutting him, but there is no replacement already on the staff and I am not positive the Jets can do much better with what is projected to be available on the free agent market. At the same time, Brick is not going to have a ton of suitors on the open market and is likely to have an interest in finishing his career with the same team and living in the area he grew up in. Jets save another 4.5 million.
Mangold - He still looks like he has some tread left on his tire, so the Jets can afford to spread his cap hit over the next couple of years. Caps savings of 3 million.
New cap figure is 103,500,000 leaving us with 46,500,000. Let’s assume the rookie salary pool will be about 6,500,000, that leaves the team with 40,000,000 to go shopping.
RESIGN (I’m using Spotrac and Jason @ Over The Cap for my salary projections)
Leger Douzable - 1 million
Erin Henderson - 1.2 million
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Obviously the Jets should bring him back on a short deal. The speculation on what his contract will be has ranged anywhere from 10 million per year to 7-8. I’ll go with 8 million per for 3 years.
Bilal Powell - The Jets can’t go into the draft with Zach Stacy as their leading returning RB. While Ivory has been a very good player for the Jets (especially for a 4th rounder), he is getting older, constantly gets nicked up and will likely receive a nice contract with the season he is coming off. I’d rather bring Powell back on a modest contract. Powell is not Adrian Peterson, but he is a solid all around 3rd down back who can be the lead RB in a pinch. 1.2 million per year for 2 years.
Damon Harrison - Snacks is a priority re-sign for me. The NT is so important in a 3-4 and Snacks has been as good a 3-4 NT as anyone else in the league the last several years. Yes, he offers almost nothing in the pass rush, but he is arguably the biggest reason why our run defense has been as good as it has over the last couple of years. 6 million per year for Snacks.
money left over is 20,300,000
FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (again, I’m using Jason’s calculations or Spotorac)
The goal is to get younger and faster (isn’t that always the goal?)
Lamar Miller (RB) - For reasons I cannot figure out, Miami never really seemed to want to lean on Miller. They drafted Jay Ajayi last year and they have cap problems, so I doubt that Miller is coming back. Miller is a fast player who will add a needed home run element to the Jets. Looking at the average contracts for running backs: overthecap.com/position/running-back, I’d say Miller gets Vereen money, so let’s say 4.5 million a year for 5 years
Jeff Allen (RT) - I really don’t know shit about this player, however he filled in admirably at RT for the Chiefs this year and he is only 26 (http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/22/10814516/jeff-allen-free-agency-kansas-city-chiefs). Let’s say 4 million per year for 3 years.
John Simon (OLB) - Who? lol. The free agent OLB class isn’t pretty, especially if we are shopping in the bargain bin. I think Miller, Ware, Olivier and Irvin are pipe dreams. I considered Tamba Hali, but he is breaking down and it sounds like he might retire if he does not resign with KC. Things got so bad, I even contemplated Alan Branch.
Enter John Simon. He was a LEO who got drafted by the Ravens a few years back and spent the last 2 years on the Texans (Macc was part of the organization when the Texans signed him, so I’m confident he has some insight on the player). He played well last year: walterfootball.com/freeagents2016OLB.php and www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-2016-free-agency-tracker/. Young cheap upside guy who has played well in spurts (just like Chris Ivory did).
With Mercilus and Clowney starting to play well, the Texans may not make much of a tender on Simon. Simon was pretty good last year and racked up 5 sacks in limited action (similar to Mauldin). This should be a relatively cheap deal, say 2 million a year for 3 years.
Marquette Smith - Yes, I’m signing a friggin punter. Special teams kept us out of the playoffs last year and I can’t take another season of Ryan Quigley. 3 years for 2 million per
The Jets would now have about a couple of million left. This money gets left aside to fill in roster depth throughout the year.
TRADES
Mo - A lot of you guys are going to write me off at this stage and I understand why. I love Mo and I hate seeing homegrown talent go away. But the more I think about it, the better off I think the club will be in the long run. This topic has been discussed ad nauseum so I won’t get into my rational because I frankly have nothing new to add to the discussion. Jets trade him to KC for their 1st rounder and 3rd rounder.
DRAFT
Round 1
Paxton Lynch (QB from Tulsa) - I think one of the big 3 QBs is going to fall to the Jets. Lynch has played well and has a lot of physical ability, but sitting a year or two behind Fitz so the former can work out his mechanical issues will do him a world of wonder. draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-houston-2015/
Jack Conklin (Chiefs Pick) (OT from Michigan State) - run game mauler who needs to work on his footwork but should eventually develop into a pretty good LT (think a rich man’s Jason Fabini). Conklin could play his first year inside at guard or at RT. Here is some tape of him going up against Buckner: draftbreakdown.com/video/jack-conklin-vs-oregon-2015/
Round 2
Kyler Fackrell (OLB from Utah State) - I really like this kid. He already has experience standing up on the edge in a 3-4. Good athlete who needs to get a little bit stronger, but has the frames and the long arms to do it. draftbreakdown.com/video/kyler-fackrell-vs-colorado-state-2015/
Round 3
Will Redmon (CB from Mississippi State) - The loss of Cro means that we need to start looking to groom a future starter at CB and, sadly, neither Milliner nor McDougle look they will ever be “that guy”. Redmond good size kid who is aggressive and was playing well this season. He tore his ACL in October, so I don’t think he will be able to test much before the draft, causing him to drop in the draft. nflmocks.com/2015/11/04/will-redmond-cb-mississippi-state-2016-nfl-draft-scouting-report/, draftbreakdown.com/video/will-redmond-vs-lsu-2015/
Round 4
Cyrus Jones (CB from Alabama) - yes, another CB, but Bowles does like them. Jones needs a lot of work on his technique (he’s got a Kyle Burnt Toast Wilson like habit of not turning his head around when the ball is in the air), but he has the ability to develop into a starting nickel back and may replace Skrine in a couple of years. But, more than anything, Jones is a heck of a punt returner and will hopefully fill that position (and KR) for the Jets.
Round 5
Terrance Smith (LB from Florida State) former sprinter who has played well for stretches at FSU, but never became the impact player everyone expected. Good special teams potential with the ability to possibly develop into a starting ILB in the future..
Round 7
Ryan Malleck (TE from VA tech) Blocking TE
Expected cap for 2016 – 150,000,000
CUTS (many thanks to the guys at the Jets Blog for this info)
Quinton Coples - Wait, he was already cut, wasn’t he? Yes, but cutting him last year saves the Jets 7.8 million against the 2016 cap.
Breno Giacomini - arguably the worst starter on the OL last year, but fortunately, RT is a relatively easy space to fill through the draft or FA. Saves 3.8 million.
Cro - CB is one of the deepest positions on the team and Cro’s play last year does not justify paying him 8 million next year. Look for the Jets to pick a CB early in the draft. This move saves another 8 million.
Cumberland - no explanation necessary. Saves 1.9 million.
Kerley - See above. Saves 2.5 million.
New cap number is 111,000,000, leaving us about 39,000,000 in cap space
RESTRUCTURE (I’m basically plagiarizing the guys at the Jets blog here)
Brick - I thought about cutting him, but there is no replacement already on the staff and I am not positive the Jets can do much better with what is projected to be available on the free agent market. At the same time, Brick is not going to have a ton of suitors on the open market and is likely to have an interest in finishing his career with the same team and living in the area he grew up in. Jets save another 4.5 million.
Mangold - He still looks like he has some tread left on his tire, so the Jets can afford to spread his cap hit over the next couple of years. Caps savings of 3 million.
New cap figure is 103,500,000 leaving us with 46,500,000. Let’s assume the rookie salary pool will be about 6,500,000, that leaves the team with 40,000,000 to go shopping.
RESIGN (I’m using Spotrac and Jason @ Over The Cap for my salary projections)
Leger Douzable - 1 million
Erin Henderson - 1.2 million
Ryan Fitzpatrick - Obviously the Jets should bring him back on a short deal. The speculation on what his contract will be has ranged anywhere from 10 million per year to 7-8. I’ll go with 8 million per for 3 years.
Bilal Powell - The Jets can’t go into the draft with Zach Stacy as their leading returning RB. While Ivory has been a very good player for the Jets (especially for a 4th rounder), he is getting older, constantly gets nicked up and will likely receive a nice contract with the season he is coming off. I’d rather bring Powell back on a modest contract. Powell is not Adrian Peterson, but he is a solid all around 3rd down back who can be the lead RB in a pinch. 1.2 million per year for 2 years.
Damon Harrison - Snacks is a priority re-sign for me. The NT is so important in a 3-4 and Snacks has been as good a 3-4 NT as anyone else in the league the last several years. Yes, he offers almost nothing in the pass rush, but he is arguably the biggest reason why our run defense has been as good as it has over the last couple of years. 6 million per year for Snacks.
money left over is 20,300,000
FREE AGENT SIGNINGS (again, I’m using Jason’s calculations or Spotorac)
The goal is to get younger and faster (isn’t that always the goal?)
Lamar Miller (RB) - For reasons I cannot figure out, Miami never really seemed to want to lean on Miller. They drafted Jay Ajayi last year and they have cap problems, so I doubt that Miller is coming back. Miller is a fast player who will add a needed home run element to the Jets. Looking at the average contracts for running backs: overthecap.com/position/running-back, I’d say Miller gets Vereen money, so let’s say 4.5 million a year for 5 years
Jeff Allen (RT) - I really don’t know shit about this player, however he filled in admirably at RT for the Chiefs this year and he is only 26 (http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2016/1/22/10814516/jeff-allen-free-agency-kansas-city-chiefs). Let’s say 4 million per year for 3 years.
John Simon (OLB) - Who? lol. The free agent OLB class isn’t pretty, especially if we are shopping in the bargain bin. I think Miller, Ware, Olivier and Irvin are pipe dreams. I considered Tamba Hali, but he is breaking down and it sounds like he might retire if he does not resign with KC. Things got so bad, I even contemplated Alan Branch.
Enter John Simon. He was a LEO who got drafted by the Ravens a few years back and spent the last 2 years on the Texans (Macc was part of the organization when the Texans signed him, so I’m confident he has some insight on the player). He played well last year: walterfootball.com/freeagents2016OLB.php and www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/01/11/pro-2016-free-agency-tracker/. Young cheap upside guy who has played well in spurts (just like Chris Ivory did).
With Mercilus and Clowney starting to play well, the Texans may not make much of a tender on Simon. Simon was pretty good last year and racked up 5 sacks in limited action (similar to Mauldin). This should be a relatively cheap deal, say 2 million a year for 3 years.
Marquette Smith - Yes, I’m signing a friggin punter. Special teams kept us out of the playoffs last year and I can’t take another season of Ryan Quigley. 3 years for 2 million per
The Jets would now have about a couple of million left. This money gets left aside to fill in roster depth throughout the year.
TRADES
Mo - A lot of you guys are going to write me off at this stage and I understand why. I love Mo and I hate seeing homegrown talent go away. But the more I think about it, the better off I think the club will be in the long run. This topic has been discussed ad nauseum so I won’t get into my rational because I frankly have nothing new to add to the discussion. Jets trade him to KC for their 1st rounder and 3rd rounder.
DRAFT
Round 1
Paxton Lynch (QB from Tulsa) - I think one of the big 3 QBs is going to fall to the Jets. Lynch has played well and has a lot of physical ability, but sitting a year or two behind Fitz so the former can work out his mechanical issues will do him a world of wonder. draftbreakdown.com/video/paxton-lynch-vs-houston-2015/
Jack Conklin (Chiefs Pick) (OT from Michigan State) - run game mauler who needs to work on his footwork but should eventually develop into a pretty good LT (think a rich man’s Jason Fabini). Conklin could play his first year inside at guard or at RT. Here is some tape of him going up against Buckner: draftbreakdown.com/video/jack-conklin-vs-oregon-2015/
Round 2
Kyler Fackrell (OLB from Utah State) - I really like this kid. He already has experience standing up on the edge in a 3-4. Good athlete who needs to get a little bit stronger, but has the frames and the long arms to do it. draftbreakdown.com/video/kyler-fackrell-vs-colorado-state-2015/
Round 3
Will Redmon (CB from Mississippi State) - The loss of Cro means that we need to start looking to groom a future starter at CB and, sadly, neither Milliner nor McDougle look they will ever be “that guy”. Redmond good size kid who is aggressive and was playing well this season. He tore his ACL in October, so I don’t think he will be able to test much before the draft, causing him to drop in the draft. nflmocks.com/2015/11/04/will-redmond-cb-mississippi-state-2016-nfl-draft-scouting-report/, draftbreakdown.com/video/will-redmond-vs-lsu-2015/
Round 4
Cyrus Jones (CB from Alabama) - yes, another CB, but Bowles does like them. Jones needs a lot of work on his technique (he’s got a Kyle Burnt Toast Wilson like habit of not turning his head around when the ball is in the air), but he has the ability to develop into a starting nickel back and may replace Skrine in a couple of years. But, more than anything, Jones is a heck of a punt returner and will hopefully fill that position (and KR) for the Jets.
Round 5
Terrance Smith (LB from Florida State) former sprinter who has played well for stretches at FSU, but never became the impact player everyone expected. Good special teams potential with the ability to possibly develop into a starting ILB in the future..
Round 7
Ryan Malleck (TE from VA tech) Blocking TE
