Post by Trades on Oct 20, 2022 12:58:15 GMT -5
Third-best NFL team in AFC: Nine candidates' strengths, weaknesses
6:40 AM ET
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer
www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/34831766/third-best-nfl-team-afc-bills-chiefs-2022-strengths-weaknesses-nine-candidates-including-ravens-jets-dolphins
6:40 AM ET
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer
Sunday's game between the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs might not have been the sort of classic shootout many fans expected. What we saw instead, though, was a closely fought battle between two excellent teams. I'm comfortable saying the Bills are the best team in the AFC (if not the league as a whole), but the Chiefs aren't far behind. Along with the Philadelphia Eagles, they seem like a clear top tier at the top of the NFL.
I don't think many people would argue with that assessment after six weeks. When it comes to the AFC, though, who's next? If the Bills and Chiefs are the conference's two best teams, who's No. 3? I spent a couple of minutes thinking about an answer and realized I probably needed to write out an entire column to figure things out.
Let's run through the various candidates for No. 3 in the AFC, and I'll make my choice. I can see six plausible candidates with three more teams that would be on the fringes of the discussion, so settle in. None of these teams are perfect, but one of them has to be third:
Bengals | Chargers | Colts | Dolphins | Jaguars | Jets | Patriots | Ravens | Titans
New York Jets (4-2)
Right now, depending on how you slice it, the Jets have a credible case as the AFC's third-best team. They're tied for the second-best record in the conference behind the Bills. The Chiefs are with them at 4-2. And in comparison with the Chargers -- the other 4-2 team -- the Jets have a better point differential (plus-15 vs. minus-11). They also just pulled off one of the largest upsets of the season by blowing out the Packers 27-10 in Green Bay.
I'll admit I wasn't taking the Jets seriously before last week. It's true they were 3-2, but their three wins had come over teams fielding backup quarterbacks. Jacoby Brissett played the entire game for the Browns, while the Steelers swapped out Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett at halftime of their loss to New York. The Dolphins, already starting backup Teddy Bridgewater, were forced to turn to third-stringer Skylar Thompson after Bridgewater was injured in the first quarter. Getting the opposing team to play second- and third-string quarterbacks is a great way to win games, but it's probably not sustainable.
Well, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and the Jets just held him (and a garbage-time series from Jordan Love) to 10 points on 13 drives. The Packers had previous struggles on offense, but that's the sort of defensive performance you can't write off as an aberration or a product of overmatched competition. The Jets deserve a closer look.
In looking through their defensive performance, there's a clear philosophy. General manager Joe Douglas comes from Philadelphia, where the Eagles built deep defensive lines in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. Coach Robert Saleh's most significant role before joining the Jets was in San Francisco, where the 49ers built a deep defensive line in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. There's a throughline here.
Sure enough, the Jets have invested heavily in their defensive line, and we're seeing Saleh trust that line to get home. They are blitzing on just 13.5% of opposing dropbacks this season, the league's lowest mark. When they have blitzed, the results generally have been disastrous, as they've failed to rack up a single sack and are allowing the league's second-highest QBR.
When the Jets rush four or fewer and drop their defenders into coverage, they've been great. They have the league's eighth-highest sack rate, 13th-highest pressure rate and eighth-best opponent QBR. Defensive end Carl Lawson, returning from a torn Achilles, ranks 16th in the league in pass rush win rate in what's becoming a larger role in the defense.
The surprise star, at least in terms of pass-rush production, has been Quinnen Williams and his five sacks. He has been wrecking shop at nose tackle, creating pressures off twists and by overpowering interior offensive linemen. Williams has even been used as an old-school tilted nose tackle to create quicker paths to the quarterback.
We've also seen the Jets look much better running the ball, in part because of their new back. Breece Hall has generated big plays as a runner and receiver throughout his rookie campaign. He is averaging nearly a full yard more per play than the NFL Next Gen Stats model would project an average back to pick up with the same blocking and defensive placement. Michael Carter, meanwhile, is minus-0.4 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt. Last season, New York's various backs combined to average minus-0.1 RYOE per attempt. And while Hall's 38.2% run success rate is just below league average, he is making up for it with splash plays.
The glaring concern remains at quarterback. The Jets are 3-0 with second-year passer Zach Wilson, but it's difficult to argue he has contributed much to those victories. He has completed just 56% of his passes, and while he's averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, much of that came on a 79-yard completion to Hall off a totally blown Dolphins coverage. Those yards count, of course, but he can't count on an easy 79-yard gain once a month.
To be fair, Wilson has also been let down by drops, as his 5.3% drop rate is above the league average. This was also a problem when Joe Flacco was in the lineup; his drop rate was even higher at 5.8%. The Jets have an exciting group of young receivers, so there might be even more meat on the bone with this offense if they're more consistent.
Wilson did lead the Jets on a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives to come back to beat the Steelers, so we have seen him throw in situations in which they needed to score. His 47.7 QBR is only middle of the pack, but it's also well ahead of the 33.4 mark he posted as a rookie. Crucially, he has gone from being the league's worst play-action quarterback in 2021 to a league-average play-action passer, a step he needed to make to be viable in this offense.
That's the sort of improvement I'm willing to believe in for these Jets. After being one of the worst teams in 2020 and 2021, they look to be about league average right now. That's an enormous step forward. FPI gives them a 52.2% shot of making it to the postseason, which would be their first berth since 2010. I'm just not sure I believe enough in Wilson to peg them as the third-best team in the conference.
I don't think many people would argue with that assessment after six weeks. When it comes to the AFC, though, who's next? If the Bills and Chiefs are the conference's two best teams, who's No. 3? I spent a couple of minutes thinking about an answer and realized I probably needed to write out an entire column to figure things out.
Let's run through the various candidates for No. 3 in the AFC, and I'll make my choice. I can see six plausible candidates with three more teams that would be on the fringes of the discussion, so settle in. None of these teams are perfect, but one of them has to be third:
Bengals | Chargers | Colts | Dolphins | Jaguars | Jets | Patriots | Ravens | Titans
New York Jets (4-2)
Right now, depending on how you slice it, the Jets have a credible case as the AFC's third-best team. They're tied for the second-best record in the conference behind the Bills. The Chiefs are with them at 4-2. And in comparison with the Chargers -- the other 4-2 team -- the Jets have a better point differential (plus-15 vs. minus-11). They also just pulled off one of the largest upsets of the season by blowing out the Packers 27-10 in Green Bay.
I'll admit I wasn't taking the Jets seriously before last week. It's true they were 3-2, but their three wins had come over teams fielding backup quarterbacks. Jacoby Brissett played the entire game for the Browns, while the Steelers swapped out Mitch Trubisky for Kenny Pickett at halftime of their loss to New York. The Dolphins, already starting backup Teddy Bridgewater, were forced to turn to third-stringer Skylar Thompson after Bridgewater was injured in the first quarter. Getting the opposing team to play second- and third-string quarterbacks is a great way to win games, but it's probably not sustainable.
Well, Aaron Rodgers is the reigning MVP, and the Jets just held him (and a garbage-time series from Jordan Love) to 10 points on 13 drives. The Packers had previous struggles on offense, but that's the sort of defensive performance you can't write off as an aberration or a product of overmatched competition. The Jets deserve a closer look.
In looking through their defensive performance, there's a clear philosophy. General manager Joe Douglas comes from Philadelphia, where the Eagles built deep defensive lines in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. Coach Robert Saleh's most significant role before joining the Jets was in San Francisco, where the 49ers built a deep defensive line in hopes of getting pressure with their front four. There's a throughline here.
Sure enough, the Jets have invested heavily in their defensive line, and we're seeing Saleh trust that line to get home. They are blitzing on just 13.5% of opposing dropbacks this season, the league's lowest mark. When they have blitzed, the results generally have been disastrous, as they've failed to rack up a single sack and are allowing the league's second-highest QBR.
When the Jets rush four or fewer and drop their defenders into coverage, they've been great. They have the league's eighth-highest sack rate, 13th-highest pressure rate and eighth-best opponent QBR. Defensive end Carl Lawson, returning from a torn Achilles, ranks 16th in the league in pass rush win rate in what's becoming a larger role in the defense.
The surprise star, at least in terms of pass-rush production, has been Quinnen Williams and his five sacks. He has been wrecking shop at nose tackle, creating pressures off twists and by overpowering interior offensive linemen. Williams has even been used as an old-school tilted nose tackle to create quicker paths to the quarterback.
We've also seen the Jets look much better running the ball, in part because of their new back. Breece Hall has generated big plays as a runner and receiver throughout his rookie campaign. He is averaging nearly a full yard more per play than the NFL Next Gen Stats model would project an average back to pick up with the same blocking and defensive placement. Michael Carter, meanwhile, is minus-0.4 rushing yards over expectation (RYOE) per attempt. Last season, New York's various backs combined to average minus-0.1 RYOE per attempt. And while Hall's 38.2% run success rate is just below league average, he is making up for it with splash plays.
The glaring concern remains at quarterback. The Jets are 3-0 with second-year passer Zach Wilson, but it's difficult to argue he has contributed much to those victories. He has completed just 56% of his passes, and while he's averaging 7.6 yards per attempt, much of that came on a 79-yard completion to Hall off a totally blown Dolphins coverage. Those yards count, of course, but he can't count on an easy 79-yard gain once a month.
To be fair, Wilson has also been let down by drops, as his 5.3% drop rate is above the league average. This was also a problem when Joe Flacco was in the lineup; his drop rate was even higher at 5.8%. The Jets have an exciting group of young receivers, so there might be even more meat on the bone with this offense if they're more consistent.
Wilson did lead the Jets on a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown drives to come back to beat the Steelers, so we have seen him throw in situations in which they needed to score. His 47.7 QBR is only middle of the pack, but it's also well ahead of the 33.4 mark he posted as a rookie. Crucially, he has gone from being the league's worst play-action quarterback in 2021 to a league-average play-action passer, a step he needed to make to be viable in this offense.
That's the sort of improvement I'm willing to believe in for these Jets. After being one of the worst teams in 2020 and 2021, they look to be about league average right now. That's an enormous step forward. FPI gives them a 52.2% shot of making it to the postseason, which would be their first berth since 2010. I'm just not sure I believe enough in Wilson to peg them as the third-best team in the conference.
www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/34831766/third-best-nfl-team-afc-bills-chiefs-2022-strengths-weaknesses-nine-candidates-including-ravens-jets-dolphins