JD's track record and what to expect this offseason
Dec 30, 2020 10:23:04 GMT -5
frostlich, Trades, and 2 more like this
Post by sadface on Dec 30, 2020 10:23:04 GMT -5
as i sit here, waiting for my spot in line for a covid test, i see a lot of jets fans agonizing over this offseason, unwilling to face the question of what will happen with the #2 pick. i'm gonna outline why we should calm the fuck down because JD is in charge, motherfuckers. and JD is the tits.
JD's Master Plan and the HC Search
1. I created this thread detailing JD's true plans, grounded in evidence by his out-of-the-ordinary 6 year contract. 6 year contracts are not handed out like candy, and it was not merely just a bargaining tool. JD knew he needed to survive 2 years of turbulence before getting his own journey started, especially since only 1 of those 2 years would involve his own vision. in effect, JD's contract starts on Monday once Gayse is fired. 4 years, like normal. most GMs are given until year 3 to prove their worth: JD will be no different. JD's goal is to be a Super Bowl contender by 2023 with progress until then. thankfully, it should be pretty easy to demonstrate progress after a 2-14 or 3-13 season. JD will be given autonomy on the HC search and i would name Don Martindale as the favorite simply because they have worked together for 2 years in Baltimore. if not him, who knows. i looked over the Eagles coaching staff and im not sure if theres a dark horse candidate there.
a name i think we should all not be surprised about? Marvin Lewis. he and JD may not have worked together, but they worked against each other for years. i would 100% support this hire, as he's a CEO-type coach with a track record of moderate success in arguably the league's worst, second worst, or third-worst managed franchise. talk about making chicken salad.
What to Expect on Draft Day 1 - all scenarios include getting more picks:
calm the fuck down people, there are really only 3 scenarios and i will list them below in the order in which i think they are likely to happen:
1. stay at 2 and draft zach wilson, trade dranold - josh rosen was traded for 2nd and 5th round draft picks, so we know Darnold will net more than that. i think a 1st can be squeezed out of a team, if not then a 2nd and 3rd. some might say he would get less since there are more QBs on the market (Wentz, Winston) but Darnold is by far the most attractive of the 3 since he is the youngest. i'd say a trade to the Football Team, Rams, Steelers, Niners, Colts or Bucs are most likely. this scenario is most likely because, again, this is JD's true "beginning" of his tenure as GM. this will mark the team officially moving on from Macc and moving in to JD. Wilson will be the guy he lives and dies with, because he does not want his future to be tied to Darnold.
2. trade down into the 8-15 range (wash, carolina, dallas, SF, minnesota, LV, IND) for a ransom of picks, keep darnold, and take a guy like wyatt davis, kwity paye, patrick surtain. i say keep Darnold because Wilson would be gone by then, but if Wilson were to drop to this pick then he would still be the selection and Darnold would still be traded. that said, this scenario generally means darnold is coming back because the incoming coach and JD both believe he is salvageable and/or have more upside than Wilson/Fields, so he gets one more year to prove himself.
3. trade down 1-3 picks (falcons, lions) and get a good return, but not a ransom - i don't think this will be the scenario because it kind of handcuffs JD to either the 3rd best QB or an overdrafted player, which just doesn't seem to be his style. option 2 is more likely because its a "let the draft come to me" move.
JD's Track Record:
Big Personnel Decisions
NOT trading Quinnen Williams - tremendous success. some people wanted this to happen, i was conflicted, but thank god he didn't do it. tempting after a disappointing rookie season, but JD gets it. when you have an all-world athlete, they deserve time to learn and grow. QW is turning into a monster.
losing Robby Anderson - JD admitted this mistake, which in itself is a good sign.
outside of these, there are really no stand-out decisions. he's 50/50 here, but he got the more important one correct.
JD does not face any significant decisions this year, except extending Marcus Maye (no-brainer). the contracts of Henry Anderson and Jamison Crowder will be revisited. Anderson will be cut, Crowder hopefully extended. outside of these, Mosley is the only contract he really has to worry about (unless he keeps Darnold, which will only be worrisome in 2022).
The Draft
JD's first draft was phenomenal. let's recap:
Becton - future all-pro
Mims - looks great when targeted
Davis - ups and downs
Zuniga - mostly invisible, but had some nice plays against the run
Perine - solid when utilized, maybe outplayed by others, but his brother is doing well?
Morgan - who the hell knows
Clark - who the hell knows
Hall - solid
Mann - fantastic, teams would trade for.
at best, most draft picks are 50/50 to have any form of success. by virtue of math, that means a successful draft has >50% of its players contributing well. i see 4-6/9 contributors here already, with one of them already showing utter dominance. i call this a great success.
i have full confidence that JD will have another successful draft in 2021, which means he will have 20-30 hand-picked first and second year players on his 53.
Undrafted FA
Guidry, Huff, Jackson - all made contributions and only one embarrassed himself, but handled it perfectly. no stand-outs but no duds either.
Cager - who the hell knows
Free Agency
JD is clearly not so great here, but he admits his mistakes and will learn from them. Kalil was trash, Perriman trash, and the rebuilt OL was definitely an improvement (mostly thanks to Becton) but at the same time it would have been difficult not to improve from last year. George Fant had a sneaky solid year. the OL will continue to be JD's focus, but i wouldn't bet on him drafting Sewell at #2 (or at all).
The State of the Roster
Outside of Joe Flacco and Frank Gore, the Jets only had ONE 30+ year old player this season. ONE! Ryan Griffin, a nobody. The vast majority of players were 26 and under. This, not Gayse, is the reason why the team played so hard: these dudes have no NFL future unless they perform every day. and, at least on defense, perform they did.
There are 4-5 players on the Jets who, in my opinion, are top-5 in the league at their positions:
Quinnen Williams
Mekhi Becton
Marcus Maye
Braden Mann
CJ Mosley
im sure the last two are very arguable, but i would argue in favor. the first three are almost without question, and are in their infancy and improving. with the rest of the roster so young (and about to be younger due to 1000 draft picks), it cries to be molded and given an identity. JD and his hand-picked coach will do that.
anyway its time for my covid test, bye bitches
JD's Master Plan and the HC Search
1. I created this thread detailing JD's true plans, grounded in evidence by his out-of-the-ordinary 6 year contract. 6 year contracts are not handed out like candy, and it was not merely just a bargaining tool. JD knew he needed to survive 2 years of turbulence before getting his own journey started, especially since only 1 of those 2 years would involve his own vision. in effect, JD's contract starts on Monday once Gayse is fired. 4 years, like normal. most GMs are given until year 3 to prove their worth: JD will be no different. JD's goal is to be a Super Bowl contender by 2023 with progress until then. thankfully, it should be pretty easy to demonstrate progress after a 2-14 or 3-13 season. JD will be given autonomy on the HC search and i would name Don Martindale as the favorite simply because they have worked together for 2 years in Baltimore. if not him, who knows. i looked over the Eagles coaching staff and im not sure if theres a dark horse candidate there.
a name i think we should all not be surprised about? Marvin Lewis. he and JD may not have worked together, but they worked against each other for years. i would 100% support this hire, as he's a CEO-type coach with a track record of moderate success in arguably the league's worst, second worst, or third-worst managed franchise. talk about making chicken salad.
What to Expect on Draft Day 1 - all scenarios include getting more picks:
calm the fuck down people, there are really only 3 scenarios and i will list them below in the order in which i think they are likely to happen:
1. stay at 2 and draft zach wilson, trade dranold - josh rosen was traded for 2nd and 5th round draft picks, so we know Darnold will net more than that. i think a 1st can be squeezed out of a team, if not then a 2nd and 3rd. some might say he would get less since there are more QBs on the market (Wentz, Winston) but Darnold is by far the most attractive of the 3 since he is the youngest. i'd say a trade to the Football Team, Rams, Steelers, Niners, Colts or Bucs are most likely. this scenario is most likely because, again, this is JD's true "beginning" of his tenure as GM. this will mark the team officially moving on from Macc and moving in to JD. Wilson will be the guy he lives and dies with, because he does not want his future to be tied to Darnold.
2. trade down into the 8-15 range (wash, carolina, dallas, SF, minnesota, LV, IND) for a ransom of picks, keep darnold, and take a guy like wyatt davis, kwity paye, patrick surtain. i say keep Darnold because Wilson would be gone by then, but if Wilson were to drop to this pick then he would still be the selection and Darnold would still be traded. that said, this scenario generally means darnold is coming back because the incoming coach and JD both believe he is salvageable and/or have more upside than Wilson/Fields, so he gets one more year to prove himself.
3. trade down 1-3 picks (falcons, lions) and get a good return, but not a ransom - i don't think this will be the scenario because it kind of handcuffs JD to either the 3rd best QB or an overdrafted player, which just doesn't seem to be his style. option 2 is more likely because its a "let the draft come to me" move.
JD's Track Record:
Big Personnel Decisions
NOT trading Quinnen Williams - tremendous success. some people wanted this to happen, i was conflicted, but thank god he didn't do it. tempting after a disappointing rookie season, but JD gets it. when you have an all-world athlete, they deserve time to learn and grow. QW is turning into a monster.
losing Robby Anderson - JD admitted this mistake, which in itself is a good sign.
outside of these, there are really no stand-out decisions. he's 50/50 here, but he got the more important one correct.
JD does not face any significant decisions this year, except extending Marcus Maye (no-brainer). the contracts of Henry Anderson and Jamison Crowder will be revisited. Anderson will be cut, Crowder hopefully extended. outside of these, Mosley is the only contract he really has to worry about (unless he keeps Darnold, which will only be worrisome in 2022).
The Draft
JD's first draft was phenomenal. let's recap:
Becton - future all-pro
Mims - looks great when targeted
Davis - ups and downs
Zuniga - mostly invisible, but had some nice plays against the run
Perine - solid when utilized, maybe outplayed by others, but his brother is doing well?
Morgan - who the hell knows
Clark - who the hell knows
Hall - solid
Mann - fantastic, teams would trade for.
at best, most draft picks are 50/50 to have any form of success. by virtue of math, that means a successful draft has >50% of its players contributing well. i see 4-6/9 contributors here already, with one of them already showing utter dominance. i call this a great success.
i have full confidence that JD will have another successful draft in 2021, which means he will have 20-30 hand-picked first and second year players on his 53.
Undrafted FA
Guidry, Huff, Jackson - all made contributions and only one embarrassed himself, but handled it perfectly. no stand-outs but no duds either.
Cager - who the hell knows
Free Agency
JD is clearly not so great here, but he admits his mistakes and will learn from them. Kalil was trash, Perriman trash, and the rebuilt OL was definitely an improvement (mostly thanks to Becton) but at the same time it would have been difficult not to improve from last year. George Fant had a sneaky solid year. the OL will continue to be JD's focus, but i wouldn't bet on him drafting Sewell at #2 (or at all).
The State of the Roster
Outside of Joe Flacco and Frank Gore, the Jets only had ONE 30+ year old player this season. ONE! Ryan Griffin, a nobody. The vast majority of players were 26 and under. This, not Gayse, is the reason why the team played so hard: these dudes have no NFL future unless they perform every day. and, at least on defense, perform they did.
There are 4-5 players on the Jets who, in my opinion, are top-5 in the league at their positions:
Quinnen Williams
Mekhi Becton
Marcus Maye
Braden Mann
CJ Mosley
im sure the last two are very arguable, but i would argue in favor. the first three are almost without question, and are in their infancy and improving. with the rest of the roster so young (and about to be younger due to 1000 draft picks), it cries to be molded and given an identity. JD and his hand-picked coach will do that.
anyway its time for my covid test, bye bitches
