Post by sadface on Mar 19, 2021 8:35:38 GMT -5
v interesting contracts here.
first, the context:
1. Joe and Rob do not yet know 100% who their QB will be. they definitely have plan A, B, C, and D but don't yet know which will surface. this means future cap flexibility is essential, because they might have a rookie contract for the next 5 years or they might have a superstar contract for the next 5 years - or anything in between.
2. Rob said one thing in his pressers that all players like to hear - i want to make you rich. the Lawson and Davis contracts are far, far, far from mega contracts. but they are positioned to let players earn a third mega contract. if both of these players end up as wins, expect only 1 to stay with the jets for a third contract. if just one of them ends up as a big win, that one will stay and the other will be cut after 2 years. the contract structures make that easy. and by letting these guys re-sign/extend after 2-3 seasons, when the cap explodes, then that mega contract will make them mega rich. my money is on Lawson being the guy. these contracts are win-win for team and player.
second, the numbers:
1. Lawson - at this time, Lawson has only the 18th highest APY in the league among EDGE players. 18th! that's pretty low for a guy who has topped the charts in pressures and QB hits. if some more of those pressures were sacks, he probably makes more money. the injury history also contributed to this. but 18th highest APY for a guy who is almost certainly better than that shows why this is a win-win. what is also interesting for him is that his guarantee is higher than any other EDGE player in the league who makes more than him. he is the true pivot contract in the league, because you only see higher % guarantees in players paid below him.
2. Davis - similar to Lawson, his APY is only 19th among all WRs. probably deservedly so. also similar to Lawson, only 2 players paid more than him have a higher % guaranteed, and many players paid less than him have a higher % guaranteed. he is another pivot contract. like Lawson, this contract is designed to let him prove himself for 2 years to see if he gets a mega deal by age 29, which would be far more lucrative than a mega deal today.
third, Maye:
i'm guessing Maye will get something similar. whether its a 3 or 5 year deal on paper, there will be structure to allow the player or team to take advantage of an increasing cap about 2/3 of the way into the contract. Maye will probably get top half of top-6 safety money since there is a dropoff from the 6th guy to the 7th guy, but i would bet on a shorter term deal so Maye's third contract has the opportunity for a mega deal, just like Lawson and Davis. the guarantee would be the highest among any other player in the top-6, probably in the 65-75% range (the rest of the top-6 tops out at 63.8%)
in conclusion, JD is keeping the promise RS made to players, keeping the roster young, not overpaying anyone, and betting on ascending players who clearly fit the culture RS wants. not all 3 of these signings will work out. history proves that only 1-2 of the 3 will work out, but thats why their structures exist. the team has allowed the players to bet on themselves, and other free agents in the future will see that and like that. the cap should be friendly for any QB that will be on the payroll in 2021/2022, whether its a rookie, an improved darnold, or someone we trade for. none of these signings make the jets great, but thats not the point of free agency. the signings plugged some holes with high-upside deals, minimal risk, with culture friendly players. obviously the lack of OL signings is concerning but i believe the draft will be where JD invests here the most.
first, the context:
1. Joe and Rob do not yet know 100% who their QB will be. they definitely have plan A, B, C, and D but don't yet know which will surface. this means future cap flexibility is essential, because they might have a rookie contract for the next 5 years or they might have a superstar contract for the next 5 years - or anything in between.
2. Rob said one thing in his pressers that all players like to hear - i want to make you rich. the Lawson and Davis contracts are far, far, far from mega contracts. but they are positioned to let players earn a third mega contract. if both of these players end up as wins, expect only 1 to stay with the jets for a third contract. if just one of them ends up as a big win, that one will stay and the other will be cut after 2 years. the contract structures make that easy. and by letting these guys re-sign/extend after 2-3 seasons, when the cap explodes, then that mega contract will make them mega rich. my money is on Lawson being the guy. these contracts are win-win for team and player.
second, the numbers:
1. Lawson - at this time, Lawson has only the 18th highest APY in the league among EDGE players. 18th! that's pretty low for a guy who has topped the charts in pressures and QB hits. if some more of those pressures were sacks, he probably makes more money. the injury history also contributed to this. but 18th highest APY for a guy who is almost certainly better than that shows why this is a win-win. what is also interesting for him is that his guarantee is higher than any other EDGE player in the league who makes more than him. he is the true pivot contract in the league, because you only see higher % guarantees in players paid below him.
2. Davis - similar to Lawson, his APY is only 19th among all WRs. probably deservedly so. also similar to Lawson, only 2 players paid more than him have a higher % guaranteed, and many players paid less than him have a higher % guaranteed. he is another pivot contract. like Lawson, this contract is designed to let him prove himself for 2 years to see if he gets a mega deal by age 29, which would be far more lucrative than a mega deal today.
third, Maye:
i'm guessing Maye will get something similar. whether its a 3 or 5 year deal on paper, there will be structure to allow the player or team to take advantage of an increasing cap about 2/3 of the way into the contract. Maye will probably get top half of top-6 safety money since there is a dropoff from the 6th guy to the 7th guy, but i would bet on a shorter term deal so Maye's third contract has the opportunity for a mega deal, just like Lawson and Davis. the guarantee would be the highest among any other player in the top-6, probably in the 65-75% range (the rest of the top-6 tops out at 63.8%)
in conclusion, JD is keeping the promise RS made to players, keeping the roster young, not overpaying anyone, and betting on ascending players who clearly fit the culture RS wants. not all 3 of these signings will work out. history proves that only 1-2 of the 3 will work out, but thats why their structures exist. the team has allowed the players to bet on themselves, and other free agents in the future will see that and like that. the cap should be friendly for any QB that will be on the payroll in 2021/2022, whether its a rookie, an improved darnold, or someone we trade for. none of these signings make the jets great, but thats not the point of free agency. the signings plugged some holes with high-upside deals, minimal risk, with culture friendly players. obviously the lack of OL signings is concerning but i believe the draft will be where JD invests here the most.
