Who are your "lottery ticket" type players on Jets?
Jul 12, 2015 12:38:08 GMT -5
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Post by jetstream23 on Jul 12, 2015 12:38:08 GMT -5
What I mean by a lottery ticket is a guy who you don't expect much from, he's relatively cheap or has so far underperformed that you don't really think of him much as a key difference maker on the team.....but he's a guy who could pay off big time!
I see three players in this category - Quinton Coples, Calvin Pryor, and Geno Smith.
In Coples, I've almost forgotten that he was a 1st round pick. On a defense with lots of talent (Revis, Wilkerson, Richardson, etc.) Coples has been very pedestrian in the past. He's shown flashes of being elite and then pulls a disappearing act for a couple of games. In my mind I don't really expect much from him....and that's what could make him a key to whether this defense is simply good or whether it's GREAT! Two signs of hope for Coples to break out - 1) It's been a slow transition to OLB but he now has many games "in the bank" at the position and should be more comfortable (less thinking, more acting/reacting), 2) Todd Bowles...Rex is an excellent defensive coach but when a player is stuck in a rut or hasn't broken out there is something to be said for simply having a change in coaching. Whether Bowles is better, worse or the same caliber as Rex on defense....he's different, and that's what could matter most for Coples.
Calvin Pryor is the one player of the three I mentioned that I think has the chance to improve the most. Why? Two big reasons - Having one full season of NFL experience and moving to his more natural SS position rather than playing Free. This guy was a wrecking ball in college, a true thumper with enough speed and awareness that he could play FS decently as well. But make no mistake, he's at his best when he's playing almost a hybrid Safety/LB position and focused on tackling and disrupting. I'm excited to see this guy on the field with a year of NFL experience, playing his more natural position and NOT having to cover up for a Secondary full of JAGs like we had last year. I think Pryor was almost distracted to a degree...he was a rookie, playing slightly out of position and constantly needing to make up for shortcomings at CB. You don't ask Aaron Rodgers to run a ball control offense....you shouldn't ask Calvin Pryor to be a free/cover guy in the secondary trying to make up for shortcomings. Let the thumper thump!
Finally, we come to Geno.....Ugh!.....Geno, Geno, Geno.....who art thou, Geno? Are you the Geno of Weeks 17 in 2013 and 2014? Are you the Geno who practically won the MNF game in Atlanta singlehandedly? Or, are you the multi-INT Geno....the Geno from San Diego last year....the Geno who tried to hide the football behind his back in the end zone against the Titans? You are the enigma that makes life as a football fan so frustrating because we've seen you make all the throws, we've seen you use your legs at the right times...but not rely on them solely like a running QB. You've shown that you CAN play and win in this League. You've been asked to rely on guys like David Nelson and Greg Salas as primary "weapons" at times. The problem with Geno is obviously consistency. He's shown he can be great and horrible. Besides, has any QB in the League EVER had both the absolute best (158.3) QB Rating and the absolute worst (0.0) in two games in the same season? (That's an honest question because I really don't know the answer....Has a QB ever done that before in the NFL?) So with Geno going into Year 3 I think there are things we can hang our hopes on similar to the guys above. I'll give three positives for Geno - 1) New HC and OC...Gailey could be the best fit for what Geno does, 2) 3rd season...His numbers actually did improve from Year 1 to Year 2....but this is the year that matters most. If it doesn't click by Year 3 then it likely never will, 3) By far, this will be the most offensively talented team Geno has played with in his short career. Remember, going into last season the Jets had Eric Decker and.....well, that was about it. Seriously, we drafted 3 rookie WRs (none saw a snap for the Jets), we cut Stephen Hill who some still thought could be our WR2 heading into training camp last year, and we had a guy like David Nelson starting at WR2 actually get cut because he was so bad. What team cuts a guy who was their starter because he's so bad and watches that guy not even get picked up by another team? Finally, let's remember that when Eric Decker got hurt this team almost literally had nobody to throw to. We took our Slot WR/3 in Jeremy Kerley and moved him to WR1 and rotated other guys through the WR2 spot including Salas and Owusu. Long story, short - Geno will have true Pros in Decker, Marshall and Kerley playing his natural Slot WR spot. He'll also have a solid (although rookie) deep threat in Devin Smith. He'll have a 2nd year guy in Jace Amaro, and he should hopefully have better interior OLine play in front of him at the OG spots. Geno is on my my list because I still don't expect much from him.....I expect roughly the same guy as 2014 and I'm hoping we go from 4 to 8 wins largely with better Defense. BUT....let's not sleep on the fact that a 3rd year Geno Smith with a better OC and much better weapons could take a bit of a leap rather than a baby step forward in 2015.
And if I had to guess which of my $5 lottery tickets will pay off with a $1,000 win.....I'd go with Pryor this year. I think he'll show the biggest jump given he's going from rookie to 2nd year and playing his more natural position.
I see three players in this category - Quinton Coples, Calvin Pryor, and Geno Smith.
In Coples, I've almost forgotten that he was a 1st round pick. On a defense with lots of talent (Revis, Wilkerson, Richardson, etc.) Coples has been very pedestrian in the past. He's shown flashes of being elite and then pulls a disappearing act for a couple of games. In my mind I don't really expect much from him....and that's what could make him a key to whether this defense is simply good or whether it's GREAT! Two signs of hope for Coples to break out - 1) It's been a slow transition to OLB but he now has many games "in the bank" at the position and should be more comfortable (less thinking, more acting/reacting), 2) Todd Bowles...Rex is an excellent defensive coach but when a player is stuck in a rut or hasn't broken out there is something to be said for simply having a change in coaching. Whether Bowles is better, worse or the same caliber as Rex on defense....he's different, and that's what could matter most for Coples.
Calvin Pryor is the one player of the three I mentioned that I think has the chance to improve the most. Why? Two big reasons - Having one full season of NFL experience and moving to his more natural SS position rather than playing Free. This guy was a wrecking ball in college, a true thumper with enough speed and awareness that he could play FS decently as well. But make no mistake, he's at his best when he's playing almost a hybrid Safety/LB position and focused on tackling and disrupting. I'm excited to see this guy on the field with a year of NFL experience, playing his more natural position and NOT having to cover up for a Secondary full of JAGs like we had last year. I think Pryor was almost distracted to a degree...he was a rookie, playing slightly out of position and constantly needing to make up for shortcomings at CB. You don't ask Aaron Rodgers to run a ball control offense....you shouldn't ask Calvin Pryor to be a free/cover guy in the secondary trying to make up for shortcomings. Let the thumper thump!
Finally, we come to Geno.....Ugh!.....Geno, Geno, Geno.....who art thou, Geno? Are you the Geno of Weeks 17 in 2013 and 2014? Are you the Geno who practically won the MNF game in Atlanta singlehandedly? Or, are you the multi-INT Geno....the Geno from San Diego last year....the Geno who tried to hide the football behind his back in the end zone against the Titans? You are the enigma that makes life as a football fan so frustrating because we've seen you make all the throws, we've seen you use your legs at the right times...but not rely on them solely like a running QB. You've shown that you CAN play and win in this League. You've been asked to rely on guys like David Nelson and Greg Salas as primary "weapons" at times. The problem with Geno is obviously consistency. He's shown he can be great and horrible. Besides, has any QB in the League EVER had both the absolute best (158.3) QB Rating and the absolute worst (0.0) in two games in the same season? (That's an honest question because I really don't know the answer....Has a QB ever done that before in the NFL?) So with Geno going into Year 3 I think there are things we can hang our hopes on similar to the guys above. I'll give three positives for Geno - 1) New HC and OC...Gailey could be the best fit for what Geno does, 2) 3rd season...His numbers actually did improve from Year 1 to Year 2....but this is the year that matters most. If it doesn't click by Year 3 then it likely never will, 3) By far, this will be the most offensively talented team Geno has played with in his short career. Remember, going into last season the Jets had Eric Decker and.....well, that was about it. Seriously, we drafted 3 rookie WRs (none saw a snap for the Jets), we cut Stephen Hill who some still thought could be our WR2 heading into training camp last year, and we had a guy like David Nelson starting at WR2 actually get cut because he was so bad. What team cuts a guy who was their starter because he's so bad and watches that guy not even get picked up by another team? Finally, let's remember that when Eric Decker got hurt this team almost literally had nobody to throw to. We took our Slot WR/3 in Jeremy Kerley and moved him to WR1 and rotated other guys through the WR2 spot including Salas and Owusu. Long story, short - Geno will have true Pros in Decker, Marshall and Kerley playing his natural Slot WR spot. He'll also have a solid (although rookie) deep threat in Devin Smith. He'll have a 2nd year guy in Jace Amaro, and he should hopefully have better interior OLine play in front of him at the OG spots. Geno is on my my list because I still don't expect much from him.....I expect roughly the same guy as 2014 and I'm hoping we go from 4 to 8 wins largely with better Defense. BUT....let's not sleep on the fact that a 3rd year Geno Smith with a better OC and much better weapons could take a bit of a leap rather than a baby step forward in 2015.
And if I had to guess which of my $5 lottery tickets will pay off with a $1,000 win.....I'd go with Pryor this year. I think he'll show the biggest jump given he's going from rookie to 2nd year and playing his more natural position.
