ESPN Insider: Ranking the Top OL & DL through Week 5
Oct 14, 2015 18:47:28 GMT -5
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Post by TokyoJetsFan on Oct 14, 2015 18:47:28 GMT -5
It's a classic football precept: Great teams build from the inside out. It's not quite true, however. Let's be honest, the best thing you can have is a good quarterback. But good blocking is an important part of a strong NFL offense. The "skill players" get the headlines and the fantasy football numbers, but offensive linemen break open those big holes for your running backs and keep your quarterback upright.
Unfortunately, judging offensive lines with stats can be confusing. Rushing stats are distorted by long runs, for which the blocking didn't matter after the first few yards. Passing stats are distorted by the fact that some quarterbacks are simply more prone to be sacked than others. Nonetheless, we do have some stats that attempt to analyze the offensive line, and by looking at both passing and rushing stats we can get a good idea of which lines have done the most to help teams be successful through the first five weeks of 2015.
To determine the top offensive lines so far this year, I averaged each team's rank in five categories:
Adjusted line yards (ALY): a Football Outsiders metric that splits value between the blocking and the back, based on the length of the run and adjusted for situation and opponent.
Stuffed rate: how often running backs are stuffed for a loss or no gain, the most blocking-dependent part of ALY.
Adjusted sack rate (ASR): sacks (and intentional groundings) per pass play, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Pressure rate: how often the quarterback is under duress, including both sacks and hurries, according to ESPN Stats & Information charting.
Penalties per game by offensive linemen; this category had half the weight of the other four.
Further explanation of the first three categories, with updated numbers, can be found here. Ranks listed below do not include Monday's Chargers-Steelers game.
Here are the top offensive lines through Week 5:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. New York Jets
Yes, really, the New York Jets. (It feels like I have to type all that every time I say the Jets are doing something well.) The Jets were noted for their strong offensive line through most of the Rex Ryan era, but that changed in 2014, when they ranked just 25th in adjusted sack rate and 28th in pressure rate. Certainly, quarterbacks Michael Vick and Geno Smith were part of the problem. This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick is generally average at avoiding sacks, and the Jets are doing a much better job of protecting him. The Jets rank eighth in pressure rate and first in adjusted sack rate, having allowed just two sacks in four games.
The Jets are also improved at run blocking, with Chris Ivory charging through particularly wide holes against Miami in Week 4. Left guard James Carpenter, a free-agent signing from Seattle, has been a big part of the run-blocking improvement.
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13876438/ranking-nfl-top-offensive-lines-far-season
Ranking the NFL's best front sevens
On Tuesday, Aaron Schatz counted down the best offensive lines through the first five weeks of the season using line metrics from Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information. Today, we'll flip to the other side and look at which front sevens have been the best in the league so far.
Though they seem like natural comparisons, judging front sevens is really quite different from the way we evaluate offensive lines. Ideally, offensive linemen will play every snap and possess generally similar physical strengths based on their specific blocking scheme. Conversely, a strong front seven should rotate players, particularly on the defensive line, and have players whose varied skill sets can fill the proper roles needed in any situation. Bobby Wagner and Brandon Mebane would fail miserably if they switched positions, but putting them together gives the Seattle Seahawks at least one strong solution to any pass or run call the opposing offense dials up.
These front seven rankings stemmed from an average of five categories:
Adjusted line yards (ALY): a Football Outsiders metric that splits value between the blocking and the back, based on the length of the run and adjusted for situation and opponent. For defenses, it can help show how much the front is stopping opposing backs early compared to how often the secondary is allowing long runs.
Stuffed rate: how often running backs are stuffed for a loss or no gain.
Adjusted sack rate (ASR): sacks (and intentional groundings) per pass play, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Pressure rate: how often the quarterback is under duress, including both sacks and hurries, according to ESPN Stats & Information charting.
DVOA vs. running backs: Measures part of what the front seven does in pass coverage, since linebackers tend to pick up running backs on pass plays. Adjusted for opponent. This category had half the weight of the other four.
Further explanation of the first three categories can be found here, while the full DVOA vs. RB numbers are here.
Here are the top front sevens through Week 5:
1. Denver Broncos
2. New York Jets
Gang Green's offseason revolved around massive upgrades in the secondary, but lost in all that hoopla was the fact that the Jets' front seven was pretty solid during an otherwise dismal 2014 season. The final season of the Rex Ryan era still saw New York finish fourth in adjusted sack rate, though it ranked just 13th in adjusted line yards.
This year, the Jets' run defense has improved significantly; New York leads the league in adjusted line yards by a huge margin. For reference, the separation between the Jets and the second-place Broncos is almost as large as the gap between Denver and New Orleans, which ranks 27th in the category. And the Jets have done all this without arguably their best player in Sheldon Richardson, who will return Sunday after serving his four-game suspension to open the season.
The Jets could conceivably make a run at the Broncos for the top spot. New York ranks first in pressure percentage (36.3 percent) but just 19th in adjusted sack rate (5.6 percent), suggesting that the Jets have been a little unlucky in converting those pressures to actual sacks. New York has been exceedingly lucky at recovering fumbles (83.3 percent recovery rate, first in the league). That luck isn't likely to continue, but more sacks would definitely help offset the regression.
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Green Bay Packers
espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13883883/ranking-nfl-top-defensive-front-sevens-far-season
Unfortunately, judging offensive lines with stats can be confusing. Rushing stats are distorted by long runs, for which the blocking didn't matter after the first few yards. Passing stats are distorted by the fact that some quarterbacks are simply more prone to be sacked than others. Nonetheless, we do have some stats that attempt to analyze the offensive line, and by looking at both passing and rushing stats we can get a good idea of which lines have done the most to help teams be successful through the first five weeks of 2015.
To determine the top offensive lines so far this year, I averaged each team's rank in five categories:
Adjusted line yards (ALY): a Football Outsiders metric that splits value between the blocking and the back, based on the length of the run and adjusted for situation and opponent.
Stuffed rate: how often running backs are stuffed for a loss or no gain, the most blocking-dependent part of ALY.
Adjusted sack rate (ASR): sacks (and intentional groundings) per pass play, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Pressure rate: how often the quarterback is under duress, including both sacks and hurries, according to ESPN Stats & Information charting.
Penalties per game by offensive linemen; this category had half the weight of the other four.
Further explanation of the first three categories, with updated numbers, can be found here. Ranks listed below do not include Monday's Chargers-Steelers game.
Here are the top offensive lines through Week 5:
1. Cincinnati Bengals
2. Atlanta Falcons
3. New York Jets
Yes, really, the New York Jets. (It feels like I have to type all that every time I say the Jets are doing something well.) The Jets were noted for their strong offensive line through most of the Rex Ryan era, but that changed in 2014, when they ranked just 25th in adjusted sack rate and 28th in pressure rate. Certainly, quarterbacks Michael Vick and Geno Smith were part of the problem. This season, Ryan Fitzpatrick is generally average at avoiding sacks, and the Jets are doing a much better job of protecting him. The Jets rank eighth in pressure rate and first in adjusted sack rate, having allowed just two sacks in four games.
The Jets are also improved at run blocking, with Chris Ivory charging through particularly wide holes against Miami in Week 4. Left guard James Carpenter, a free-agent signing from Seattle, has been a big part of the run-blocking improvement.
4. Oakland Raiders
5. Pittsburgh Steelers
espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13876438/ranking-nfl-top-offensive-lines-far-season
Ranking the NFL's best front sevens
On Tuesday, Aaron Schatz counted down the best offensive lines through the first five weeks of the season using line metrics from Football Outsiders and ESPN Stats & Information. Today, we'll flip to the other side and look at which front sevens have been the best in the league so far.
Though they seem like natural comparisons, judging front sevens is really quite different from the way we evaluate offensive lines. Ideally, offensive linemen will play every snap and possess generally similar physical strengths based on their specific blocking scheme. Conversely, a strong front seven should rotate players, particularly on the defensive line, and have players whose varied skill sets can fill the proper roles needed in any situation. Bobby Wagner and Brandon Mebane would fail miserably if they switched positions, but putting them together gives the Seattle Seahawks at least one strong solution to any pass or run call the opposing offense dials up.
These front seven rankings stemmed from an average of five categories:
Adjusted line yards (ALY): a Football Outsiders metric that splits value between the blocking and the back, based on the length of the run and adjusted for situation and opponent. For defenses, it can help show how much the front is stopping opposing backs early compared to how often the secondary is allowing long runs.
Stuffed rate: how often running backs are stuffed for a loss or no gain.
Adjusted sack rate (ASR): sacks (and intentional groundings) per pass play, adjusted for situation and opponent.
Pressure rate: how often the quarterback is under duress, including both sacks and hurries, according to ESPN Stats & Information charting.
DVOA vs. running backs: Measures part of what the front seven does in pass coverage, since linebackers tend to pick up running backs on pass plays. Adjusted for opponent. This category had half the weight of the other four.
Further explanation of the first three categories can be found here, while the full DVOA vs. RB numbers are here.
Here are the top front sevens through Week 5:
1. Denver Broncos
2. New York Jets
Gang Green's offseason revolved around massive upgrades in the secondary, but lost in all that hoopla was the fact that the Jets' front seven was pretty solid during an otherwise dismal 2014 season. The final season of the Rex Ryan era still saw New York finish fourth in adjusted sack rate, though it ranked just 13th in adjusted line yards.
This year, the Jets' run defense has improved significantly; New York leads the league in adjusted line yards by a huge margin. For reference, the separation between the Jets and the second-place Broncos is almost as large as the gap between Denver and New Orleans, which ranks 27th in the category. And the Jets have done all this without arguably their best player in Sheldon Richardson, who will return Sunday after serving his four-game suspension to open the season.
The Jets could conceivably make a run at the Broncos for the top spot. New York ranks first in pressure percentage (36.3 percent) but just 19th in adjusted sack rate (5.6 percent), suggesting that the Jets have been a little unlucky in converting those pressures to actual sacks. New York has been exceedingly lucky at recovering fumbles (83.3 percent recovery rate, first in the league). That luck isn't likely to continue, but more sacks would definitely help offset the regression.
3. Tennessee Titans
4. Seattle Seahawks
5. Green Bay Packers
espn.go.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/13883883/ranking-nfl-top-defensive-front-sevens-far-season
