Attempted coup in Turkey

I'm sorry but that is utter bullshit. DOn't get me wrong it is a very popular view here in Turkey (about 20 percent believe it last I saw) as well but its bullshit nonetheless.

Because that point of view accepts as  fact that Erdoğan is some omnipotent force who can play puppetmaster with a nation of 77 million half of whom hates him with a passion and the other half adores him. It's just not possible. The coup was unbelievably fortunate for him but I have no doubt whatsoever that it was a real coup. I'm not sure if you saw the footage of civilans being bombed, tanks running over cars, snipers killing people, of course the Anti-Erdoğan rhetoric says that the deaths played right into his hands and he doesn't care about who dies and who doesn't. But its not that simple; 

1- A few of the dead were very very close to him. One was his personal friend since before his days as the mayor of istanbul and the other was that friend's 16 year old son, one was the brother of one his closest advisors. Even if this was staged I don't believe for a minute that someone in his that close circle would not have known about it and gotten killed while trying to fight it off.But admittedly this is weak.  

2- He didn't need the coup for this purge, nor for the State of Emergency that was declared last night. There have been many more terror attacks in Turkey than in France in the past year and there is also an armed insurgency/war going on in the south east of the country. There was basis to declare a state of emergency prior to the coup. Also no one except the Gülenists would have blinked if this was happening to them even without the coup. They may be the one constant in Turkish society. Everyone hates them. 

3- The purge is breathtaking in its scope. No disputing that. But if you only look at the numbers it will be misleading. The Gülenists main objective has always been to infiltrate the Turkish State for the past 40 years. This is not some upstart organization that has been doing this since Erdogan took over 15 years ago. There are testimonies of former Gülenists that declare that they were given the questions to military high school from as far back as 1986. They say that they were thought different ways of praying etc. so as not to stick out in a staunchly secular institution. So its probable if not conceivable that these people are this numerous. About ten years ago there were two cases in Turkey calles "Ergenekon" and " Sledgehammer". At the time these were told to be people in the military who were planning a coup and got caught. Many people, myself included, who are sick of the Turkish military's appetite to stick its nose in politics were too quick to accept these as facts. But then gradually it became clear that the "evidence" against these people were mostly fabricated and almost all of them have been exhonorated and returned to active service. These were mostly the staunchly Kemalist Secular old guard. And the people who replaced them were mostly responsible for the coup last week. Now that these guys will be purged, guess who will be back to man those posts? Yes some will be loyal to Erdogan but he doesn't have a power base in the military that is so extensive that he can fill every hole. Out of necessity he will have to work with Kemalists. 

There are also cultural differences. In turkey judges and prosecuters are not elected but essentially appointed by the state after they pass an exam. So you have to think of these people as any other civil servant rather than a judge. 

4- How do you convince the coup plotters to essentially make a kamikaze run. Because if this was staged they know they're getting fucked in the end, why would they go along? These are not some idiot 20 year old suicide bombers doped up high as a kite or religous nuts. These are 3 4 star generals, admirals, Colonels etc. with families. Why the fuck would they go along with a script like this?


So yes in the end Erdoğan got stronger but not because this was a false flag op but because he won. And not so much that it makes a real difference because he was strong anyway. But as an unintended consequence I think the Kemalists will also get stronger altough it remains to be seen how much. 

The real question is what our relations with the US and EU are going to be like. Because everyone in Turkey from the Kemalists to Erdogan supporters to the Commies to the Kurds agree on one thing; that Gülen was a tool of the US/CIA. He fled there when he was about to be interned by the Kemalists in 99 and he almost got kicked out when it was discovered he lied on his visa application or something when the former İstanbul or Ankara not sure which bureau chief of the CIA stepped in to get him a green car in 2007. If the US stands by him I son't like our odds of staying with the western alliance. We may be seeing Erdogan become much closer with Putin in the coming days if that situation is not resolved. 

And that is when Turkey will become uninhabitable for people like me.