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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 10, 2018 18:01:42 GMT -5
I'm not out because I'm afraid the market is overvalued or it's going to crash because of some economic reason. I think it's just a matter of time before Clinton, Comey, Clapper, Lynch and a host of others are arrested and charged with a shitload of crimes. I don't think people are going to be prepared to handle what's coming and will act irrationally. Lots of the senior leadership at the FBI have been fired, and a grand jury is investigating McCabe. The corruption has quietly been investigated for almost two years, and I think Trump and Sessions are going to drop the hammer real soon. If I'm wrong I lose maybe 2-4% worth of gains while I sit on the sidelines. If I'm right I have protected my retirement while the market goes in the shitter. I'm not out to try and time the market. My motivation is to avoid the 70% haircut I took the last time. I can't afford another big hit like that at my age. I think it will recover quickly when people get used to "the new normal" but I think it's definately going down in the near term. You can call me a nut but that's my thought process. Ok. We will revisit this post at years end. |
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Post by 2foolish on Sept 10, 2018 18:02:48 GMT -5
i don't know about nothing but a couple of guys at work are millionaires cause they were lucky enough not to have touched their 401k in 30 yrs. so...
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Post by DDNYjets on Sept 10, 2018 21:36:34 GMT -5
Something you have to worry about today that you didnt have to years ago is the automated trading system sell-offs. We have seen them cause big dips this year despite nearly all economic numbers looking healthy. Could happen at 27k or 28k.
Scared money reacting to fake news is another problem.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 10, 2018 23:04:12 GMT -5
Something you have to worry about today that you didnt have to years ago is the automated trading system sell-offs. We have seen them cause big dips this year despite nearly all economic numbers looking healthy. Could happen at 27k or 28k. Scared money reacting to fake news is another problem. Wall Street is the king of fake reports. Seriously? |
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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 11, 2018 6:07:36 GMT -5
Something you have to worry about today that you didnt have to years ago is the automated trading system sell-offs. We have seen them cause big dips this year despite nearly all economic numbers looking healthy. Could happen at 27k or 28k. Scared money reacting to fake news is another problem. Wall Street is the king of fake reports. Seriously? And where do you keep your pittance? In a savings account? |
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2018 7:49:48 GMT -5
Wall Street is the king of fake reports. Seriously? And where do you keep your pittance? In a savings account? I have money in the markets, I was just laughing the markets reacting to “fake news”, almost as bad as asking people on a jets board for market advice. |
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 11, 2018 8:57:16 GMT -5
I'm not out because I'm afraid the market is overvalued or it's going to crash because of some economic reason. I think it's just a matter of time before Clinton, Comey, Clapper, Lynch and a host of others are arrested and charged with a shitload of crimes. I don't think people are going to be prepared to handle what's coming and will act irrationally. Lots of the senior leadership at the FBI have been fired, and a grand jury is investigating McCabe. The corruption has quietly been investigated for almost two years, and I think Trump and Sessions are going to drop the hammer real soon. If I'm wrong I lose maybe 2-4% worth of gains while I sit on the sidelines. If I'm right I have protected my retirement while the market goes in the shitter. I'm not out to try and time the market. My motivation is to avoid the 70% haircut I took the last time. I can't afford another big hit like that at my age. I think it will recover quickly when people get used to "the new normal" but I think it's definately going down in the near term. You can call me a nut but that's my thought process. Its a fair concern, and I've read a few things predicting what you're laying out. if you're in your 50's, you don't want to risk losing big, because you wont have time to recover by retirement time. Ive got 20 years before I hit 65, and FML probably wont even retire then, so Im looking longer term. Might be a good time to buy low(er). |
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 11, 2018 8:59:10 GMT -5
And where do you keep your pittance? In a savings account? I have money in the markets, I was just laughing the markets reacting to “fake news”, almost as bad as asking people on a jets board for market advice.
Its just chat between online "friends". I'm sure he's not going to peg his retirement funds on anything any of us morons say here. |
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 11, 2018 9:02:34 GMT -5
i don't know about nothing but a couple of guys at work are millionaires cause they were lucky enough not to have touched their 401k in 30 yrs. so... Seems to work. I posted the Jack Bogle quotes on a whim, but theres a school of thought (Bogleheads) that says buy 3-4 index funds, low fees, set it and forget it other than a re balancing once a year to adjust your balance of stocks to bonds. Its boring but its made people money over the long run. |
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Post by Jets Things on Sept 11, 2018 9:18:09 GMT -5
It's easy to grin when your ship comes in and you've got the stock market beat. But the man worthwhile is the man who can smile when his shorts are too tight in the seat.
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Post by southparkcpa on Sept 11, 2018 9:26:23 GMT -5
I'm not out because I'm afraid the market is overvalued or it's going to crash because of some economic reason. I think it's just a matter of time before Clinton, Comey, Clapper, Lynch and a host of others are arrested and charged with a shitload of crimes. I don't think people are going to be prepared to handle what's coming and will act irrationally. Lots of the senior leadership at the FBI have been fired, and a grand jury is investigating McCabe. The corruption has quietly been investigated for almost two years, and I think Trump and Sessions are going to drop the hammer real soon. If I'm wrong I lose maybe 2-4% worth of gains while I sit on the sidelines. If I'm right I have protected my retirement while the market goes in the shitter. I'm not out to try and time the market. My motivation is to avoid the 70% haircut I took the last time. I can't afford another big hit like that at my age. I think it will recover quickly when people get used to "the new normal" but I think it's definately going down in the near term. You can call me a nut but that's my thought process. Its a fair concern, and I've read a few things predicting what you're laying out. if you're in your 50's, you don't want to risk losing big, because you wont have time to recover by retirement time. Ive got 20 years before I hit 65, and FML probably wont even retire then, so Im looking longer term. Might be a good time to buy low(er). While that's an interesting take, I am a CFP and do this for a living. Think about the average 65 year old... he/she has a 70 percent chance to make it to 85-90. So... based upon what you are saying I would have 3-4 years savings in short term fixed income, the remainder in equity. It must last 25-30 years. So if you need say $65K a year from your investments and you have say $1.5 million, I would have about $250-300K in short term bonds earning 2-3 percent the rest would be in quality stocks. If you had $2 million.. same thing only 250-300K in short term.
GREAT advice to all.. listen to Bob Brinker. STREAM him on Sunday from 4 to 7. bobbrinker.com. BEST investment advice , no close seconds. He's a big fan of Bogle and Vanguard. I listen to him from a New Hampshire station I stream as he is not in Charlotte. |
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 11, 2018 10:10:46 GMT -5
Its a fair concern, and I've read a few things predicting what you're laying out. if you're in your 50's, you don't want to risk losing big, because you wont have time to recover by retirement time. Ive got 20 years before I hit 65, and FML probably wont even retire then, so Im looking longer term. Might be a good time to buy low(er). While that's an interesting take, I am a CFP and do this for a living. Think about the average 65 year old... he/she has a 70 percent chance to make it to 85-90. So... based upon what you are saying I would have 3-4 years savings in short term fixed income, the remainder in equity. It must last 25-30 years. So if you need say $65K a year from your investments and you have say $1.5 million, I would have about $250-300K in short term bonds earning 2-3 percent the rest would be in quality stocks. If you had $2 million.. same thing only 250-300K in short term.
GREAT advice to all.. listen to Bob Brinker. STREAM him on Sunday from 4 to 7. bobbrinker.com. BEST investment advice , no close seconds. He's a big fan of Bogle and Vanguard. I listen to him from a New Hampshire station I stream as he is not in Charlotte.I'll check him out, thanks! Im no expert, but Ive heard some say your portfolio should have roughly your age in % in bonds, and the rest stock? So a 40 yr old should be around 60% stock, 40% bonds but that sounds maybe a little conservative. The nice thing about the Bogle approach and Vanguard is that the fees are extremely low. |
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Post by southparkcpa on Sept 11, 2018 10:52:03 GMT -5
While that's an interesting take, I am a CFP and do this for a living. Think about the average 65 year old... he/she has a 70 percent chance to make it to 85-90. So... based upon what you are saying I would have 3-4 years savings in short term fixed income, the remainder in equity. It must last 25-30 years. So if you need say $65K a year from your investments and you have say $1.5 million, I would have about $250-300K in short term bonds earning 2-3 percent the rest would be in quality stocks. If you had $2 million.. same thing only 250-300K in short term.
GREAT advice to all.. listen to Bob Brinker. STREAM him on Sunday from 4 to 7. bobbrinker.com. BEST investment advice , no close seconds. He's a big fan of Bogle and Vanguard. I listen to him from a New Hampshire station I stream as he is not in Charlotte.I'll check him out, thanks! Im no expert, but Ive heard some say your portfolio should have roughly your age in % in bonds, and the rest stock? So a 40 yr old should be around 60% stock, 40% bonds but that sounds maybe a little conservative. The nice thing about the Bogle approach and Vanguard is that the fees are extremely low. Fees are KEY.. but the advice you quoted was coined when bonds returned around 4-5 percent. |
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Post by Ff2 on Sept 11, 2018 11:01:34 GMT -5
Its a fair concern, and I've read a few things predicting what you're laying out. if you're in your 50's, you don't want to risk losing big, because you wont have time to recover by retirement time. Ive got 20 years before I hit 65, and FML probably wont even retire then, so Im looking longer term. Might be a good time to buy low(er). While that's an interesting take, I am a CFP and do this for a living. Think about the average 65 year old... he/she has a 70 percent chance to make it to 85-90. So... based upon what you are saying I would have 3-4 years savings in short term fixed income, the remainder in equity. It must last 25-30 years. So if you need say $65K a year from your investments and you have say $1.5 million, I would have about $250-300K in short term bonds earning 2-3 percent the rest would be in quality stocks. If you had $2 million.. same thing only 250-300K in short term.
GREAT advice to all.. listen to Bob Brinker. STREAM him on Sunday from 4 to 7. bobbrinker.com. BEST investment advice , no close seconds. He's a big fan of Bogle and Vanguard. I listen to him from a New Hampshire station I stream as he is not in Charlotte.Or just marry a teacher. |
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 11, 2018 12:33:46 GMT -5
I did marry a teacher, and a younger one at that. Momma didn’t raise no fool. I’m just trying to hedge my bets.  |
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