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Post by bxjetfan on Sept 6, 2018 18:59:22 GMT -5
For the next couple of months, until after the election. Just parking everything in bonds until I see how much shit is going to hit the fan. I think Trump is going to drop the Hammer of God on the Dems, and the market will not react well short term. I think the economy is sound, but investor confidence will drop and people will bail. After awhile it will recover and I hope to jump back in then. If I'm wrong then I miss two months of growth. I ran this past the wife and she doesn't think I'm crazy. What do you guys think?
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Post by JetRepulsion1 on Sept 6, 2018 19:06:52 GMT -5
For the next couple of months, until after the election. Just parking everything in bonds until I see how much shit is going to hit the fan. I think Trump is going to drop the Hammer of God on the Dems, and the market will not react well short term. I think the economy is sound, but investor confidence will drop and people will bail. After awhile it will recover and I hope to jump back in then. If I'm wrong then I miss two months of growth. I ran this past the wife and she doesn't think I'm crazy. What do you guys think? I was just thinking the same thing today, but I don’t think I’m gonna get out. If the market does tank (and at some point it will go down), I may buy more. It’s tough to Time the market but would be interested in other people’s thoughts too. |
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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 6, 2018 21:25:56 GMT -5
Not yet. Canada and China tariff deals will give a nice pop. Inflation isn’t crazy. Tax cuts will bump earnings thought the end of the year.
We are about to breakout to new highs. Even if dema win the election the rest of the year is fine. Need to reconsider in 2019.
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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 6, 2018 21:30:37 GMT -5
If you’re really worried buy puts to hedge.
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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 6, 2018 21:42:20 GMT -5
Oh and bonds are a dumb investment right now. Rates are only going up therefore your price of bonds will drop when you sell them.
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Post by Frank Reynolds on Sept 6, 2018 22:02:19 GMT -5
The market is like a roller coaster, but always ends up up in the long run. Keep your money in and don't even pay attention to the waves.
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 7, 2018 8:15:26 GMT -5
If it goes down, buy more. Its only going to go back up again.
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Post by shakin on Sept 7, 2018 11:06:23 GMT -5
lol
the algos won't let it crash until tptb want it to crash
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Post by Mond the Bagnificient on Sept 7, 2018 11:36:06 GMT -5
lol the algos won't let it crash until tptb want it to crash Stick to keeping your money under your mattress you rube |
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Post by shakin on Sept 7, 2018 16:33:09 GMT -5
lol the algos won't let it crash until tptb want it to crash Stick to keeping your money under your mattress you rube lol i'm in the market you raging fuckstick i'm just not naive enough to ignore the obvious reality that the market is controlled and manipulated. ride the wave but dont kid yourself, if you think the market is running free and fair your head is so far up your ass you could stare out of your mouth |
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Post by Frank Reynolds on Sept 7, 2018 16:46:31 GMT -5
Wait... is shakin and bond two different people or two different personalities arguing with himself? This is confusing me.
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Post by shakin on Sept 7, 2018 17:07:14 GMT -5
Wait... is shakin and bond two different people or two different personalities arguing with himself? This is confusing me. yes |
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Post by Trades on Sept 10, 2018 11:27:59 GMT -5
A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. indicator designed to provide a “reasonable signal for future bear-market risk” has risen to the highest in almost 50 years. The firm’s Bull/Bear Index, which is based on measures of equity valuation, growth momentum, unemployment, inflation and the yield curve, is now at levels last seen in 1969. While the gauge is at levels that have historically preceded a bear market, Goldman strategists including Peter Oppenheimer wrote in a note last week that a long period of relatively low returns from stocks is a more likely alternative.
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Post by BEAC0NJET on Sept 10, 2018 14:29:34 GMT -5
"The idea that a bell rings to signal when investors should get into or out of the market is simply not credible. After nearly 50 years in this business, I do not know of anybody who has done it successfully and consistently."
"Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy."
"If you have trouble imagining a 20% loss in the stock market, you shouldn't be in stocks."
-Jack Bogle
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Post by bxjetfan on Sept 10, 2018 16:44:28 GMT -5
I'm not out because I'm afraid the market is overvalued or it's going to crash because of some economic reason. I think it's just a matter of time before Clinton, Comey, Clapper, Lynch and a host of others are arrested and charged with a shitload of crimes. I don't think people are going to be prepared to handle what's coming and will act irrationally. Lots of the senior leadership at the FBI have been fired, and a grand jury is investigating McCabe. The corruption has quietly been investigated for almost two years, and I think Trump and Sessions are going to drop the hammer real soon.
If I'm wrong I lose maybe 2-4% worth of gains while I sit on the sidelines. If I'm right I have protected my retirement while the market goes in the shitter. I'm not out to try and time the market. My motivation is to avoid the 70% haircut I took the last time. I can't afford another big hit like that at my age. I think it will recover quickly when people get used to "the new normal" but I think it's definately going down in the near term. You can call me a nut but that's my thought process.
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