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Post by Lithfan on Mar 25, 2018 16:31:07 GMT -5
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 22, 2018 14:13:29 GMT -5
Would be a huge upgrade over Skrine in the slot. Hopefully they can close the deal without letting him go to Cleveland. And in other news, Mewhort re-signed with Indy. Guess the Jets are comfortable with Carpenter in this zone scheme. Has not been a whole lot of buzz around us and any interior lineman since we signed Long. I assume that we are comfortable that Carpenter can adapt tot he zone scheme. Hope they are right.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 22, 2018 13:55:45 GMT -5
History suggests we have about a 50% chance of hitting on a Top 5 QB. Certainly better odds than a second or 4th rounder, but when you look at the history of top5 QBs, there is still a pretty big miss factor. Probably the most important guy on this team for the next couple of season is Jeremy Bates. I have no confidence in Bowles ability to develop a QB, nothing we have seen in his 3 seasons would suggest that he or his staff can. There was no evident development in Bryce Petty from Year 1 to Year 3 -- he still looked like a lost rookie when he stepped in this season. And forget about Hack -- there is nothing any of us have seen that could possibly suggest that he has been developed. It has got to be up to Bates, can he help whomever we take - Allen/Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield develop into a Top 10 QB. For the record, here is a list of all QBs drafted top 5 in the last 30 years (excluding the most recent few years since it is too early to pass judgement). I grouped the QBs into Franchise QBs, Solid Starters (guys who started most of their careers but floated around the league), and busts. Franchise (14) | Starter (3) | Bust (11)
| Recent Picks (7)
| Alex Smith
| Jeff George
| Akili Smith
| Blake Bortles
| Andrew Luck
| Kerry Collins
| David Carr
| Carson Wentz
| Cam Newton
| Sam Bradford
| Heat Shuler
| Jameis Winston
| Carson Palmer
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| Jamarcus Russell
| Jared Goff
| Donovan McNabb
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| Joey Harrington
| Marcus Mariota
| Drew Bledsoe
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| Mark Sanchez
| Mitch Trubisky
| Eli Manning
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| Rick MIrer
| Patrick Mahomes
| Matt Ryan
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| Robert Griffin
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| Matthew Stafford
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| Ryan Leaf
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| Michael Vick
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| Tim Couch
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| Peyton Manning
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| Vince Young
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| Philip Rivers
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| Steve McNair
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| Troy Aikman
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Of the 28 guys, 14 are considered franchise QBs, and you could probably argue that a couple of the "franchise" guys belong in the starter category (Bledsoe, Palmer, Vick). 50% hit rate. Do we have the coaching staff/scouting staff to push the odds higher than 50%. I hope so, but I don't have a lot of confidence in our decision makers/coaching staff. I just hope they get it right. Not to be homerish, but if you compare Sanchez to the rest of the QBs on that list, there's no way he should be labeled a bust. Save for Vince Young, none of them had close to the margin of success that Sanchez did. Couple with his run with the Eagles, I'd have to say you give him starter status. Fair enough,. I was really focusing on number of starts the guy has had in his career. Collins started 180 games, George started over 120. Bradford at 80 is the closest comparison to Sanchez (72), but Bradford's starts were limited due to injury. Aside from the one year with the Snoopy Bowl injury, Mark has been relatively healthy. Either way, it is a subjective measure and whether you consider Sanchez a bust or not, it does not change the point that 50% of the Top 5 QBs do not reach "franchise QB" status.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 22, 2018 12:32:23 GMT -5
Would be a huge upgrade over Skrine in the slot. Hopefully they can close the deal without letting him go to Cleveland.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 22, 2018 10:53:20 GMT -5
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 22, 2018 9:30:58 GMT -5
To be fair, Mac will be selecting a QB with the third overall pick this time, rather than with a second- or fourth-round pick. I don't think he necessarily drafted Hackenberg or Petty with the idea that they were definitely going to be the franchise QB. Both were gambles that didn't work out. Now he's going to get a guy that everyone projects to be worthy of a high first-round pick. His pick won't automatically be a 10-15-year franchise QB for us, but the odds certainly are greater this time that he will.History suggests we have about a 50% chance of hitting on a Top 5 QB. Certainly better odds than a second or 4th rounder, but when you look at the history of top5 QBs, there is still a pretty big miss factor. Probably the most important guy on this team for the next couple of season is Jeremy Bates. I have no confidence in Bowles ability to develop a QB, nothing we have seen in his 3 seasons would suggest that he or his staff can. There was no evident development in Bryce Petty from Year 1 to Year 3 -- he still looked like a lost rookie when he stepped in this season. And forget about Hack -- there is nothing any of us have seen that could possibly suggest that he has been developed. It has got to be up to Bates, can he help whomever we take - Allen/Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield develop into a Top 10 QB. For the record, here is a list of all QBs drafted top 5 in the last 30 years (excluding the most recent few years since it is too early to pass judgement). I grouped the QBs into Franchise QBs, Solid Starters (guys who started most of their careers but floated around the league), and busts. Franchise (14) | Starter (3) | Bust (11)
| Recent Picks (7)
| Alex Smith
| Jeff George
| Akili Smith
| Blake Bortles
| Andrew Luck
| Kerry Collins
| David Carr
| Carson Wentz
| Cam Newton
| Sam Bradford
| Heat Shuler
| Jameis Winston
| Carson Palmer
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| Jamarcus Russell
| Jared Goff
| Donovan McNabb
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| Joey Harrington
| Marcus Mariota
| Drew Bledsoe
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| Mark Sanchez
| Mitch Trubisky
| Eli Manning
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| Rick MIrer
| Patrick Mahomes
| Matt Ryan
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| Robert Griffin
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| Matthew Stafford
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| Ryan Leaf
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| Michael Vick
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| Tim Couch
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| Peyton Manning
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| Vince Young
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| Philip Rivers
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| Steve McNair
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| Troy Aikman
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Of the 28 guys, 14 are considered franchise QBs, and you could probably argue that a couple of the "franchise" guys belong in the starter category (Bledsoe, Palmer, Vick). 50% hit rate. Do we have the coaching staff/scouting staff to push the odds higher than 50%. I hope so, but I don't have a lot of confidence in our decision makers/coaching staff. I just hope they get it right.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 20, 2018 20:02:04 GMT -5
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 19, 2018 16:04:12 GMT -5
Holy shit...is this real?!? You sure that is legit? That twitter account has 15 followers and this is the second tweet since September. I am guessing it is a fake account.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 19, 2018 15:09:46 GMT -5
Maybe the reason JT hasn’t signed is because he’s waiting for Snow to be fired first. I hope so but I just can't see him staying here. Would you if you were in his shoes? At this point, I am resigned to the fact that he is gone. Cannot think of a logical reason why he would stay.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 19, 2018 15:02:23 GMT -5
My top 4:
Rosen Darnold Mayfield Allen
What I want: Darnold to Browns Barkley to Giants Rosen
What I expect: Darnold Rosen Allen.
FWIW, I am doing a mock draft on Facebook Draft site. Darnold, Rosen went 1 & 2 to Browns and Giants. I took Baker.
What really pisses me off is I had a trade in place with the Giants to move up to 2. But Macc went and fucked that up for me. Without any second rounders, there was no way I could get back up to 2.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 19, 2018 10:35:14 GMT -5
This would be a great pickup. I agree. Just hoping he leaves Seattle without a contract.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 19, 2018 10:13:31 GMT -5
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 18, 2018 8:00:41 GMT -5
It won't be the Bills if the Giants do trade. Bills have a legit interest if finding out if McCarron can be a franchise type of player. It's not like the guy is without a pedigree. The Jets have made the price for that #2 pick too high for the Bills IMO. They'll take their chances on next years draft. I think the Jets & Bills are targeting different QBs. Word out of Tony Pauline is that the Bills love Josh Allen. I believe Jets made this trade this week because they needed to confirm their love for Rosen & Mayfield (both had pro days this past week). So now, even if they truly don't like both at the same level & someone jumps in front of them to nab the QB of their choice...the Jets can draft the other & pretend like he was their 1A all the time, not 1B. All in all, I think the team that the Bills will actually want to jump for Allen is the Broncos. Browns move back and rack up more picks. If it is true that the Bills are targeting Allen, then the best thing for us could be for Buff to trade up to 2 with the Giants and take Allen off the board. However, at this time of year, there is so much misinformation that nobody really knows what anyone is thinking. But, if the Bills move up to 2 and take Allen, that would leave either Darnold or Rosen for us. I prefer Rosen, but Darnold is my #2 choice. I do not want Allen at all, although that said, I have not watched much tape of his, just a couple of games where he made a few great throws mixed in with some terrible throws. Maybe it is time to watch some game tape on Allen.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 17, 2018 20:09:23 GMT -5
How is it that the Bills with two numbers ones couldn't get this done... Unless the Bills were willing to go crazy to outbid us, using the draft value chart, the Jets had more to offer. We are very close to even with the Bills in terms of draft value. Our 1st pick (6) is worth more than their first pick (12). Our first two picks (6 & 37) are worth more than their first two picks (12 & 22). Even our first three are worth more than their first three & our first four are worth more than their first four. The Bills had to be willing to out bid us by adding more and more to their bid. Obviously there came a point where there would not outbid us. Also, now the Colts have the 6th pick. I think they keep it. But if one of the big 4 QBs is still on the board, they could possibly still trade out of the pick to one of the QB needy teams that wants to move up for a QB and make another killing. Agree with everything you have laid out. Only thing i would add is that, based upon Colts GM Chris Ballard's comments, it does not appear that the Colts wanted to drop out of the Top 10. They could move to 6 and still likely get one of the top 4 non-QB prospects: Barkley, Chubb, Nelson or Minkah. All these guys are likely to be gone by the 12th pick.
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Post by Lithfan on Mar 17, 2018 19:09:38 GMT -5
Who the F is this guy? Are we down a LB? Depth signing / special teamer. The guy has as many NFL starts in his career as arrests. Was arrested in January for possession of marijuana. Former 4th round pick of the Seahawks out of BC.
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