Post by TokyoJetsFan on Apr 22, 2015 11:47:50 GMT -5
1
Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-3WT: 231POS: QB
Analysis: No surprise here. I have Winston as the top-ranked player on my board, and I believe he will be the first overall pick by the Bucs on April 30. Tampa Bay has to get its quarterback of the future out of this selection, and while Winston does bring with him some off-field risks, I give him the edge as a player over Marcus Mariota. In the areas that matter most in projecting QBs to the next level -- including reading defenses, going through progressions, anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately -- he's one of the best prospects I've evaluated in the past 10 years.
2
Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 222POS: QB
Analysis: This is a tough pick to make. If the Titans don't receive a trade offer they like at this spot, I feel like they're more likely to take a player other than Mariota (USC's Leonard Williams would be a perfect fit in Ray Horton's hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive scheme). But I'll slot Mariota here in accordance with the Mel Kiper "no trades" mock draft rule, with the idea that I believe a team will move up to take him at No. 2. It makes sense for the Chargers to trade Philip Rivers for the second pick if they don't think they can retain Rivers beyond this year, especially given Rivers' experience with Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt. I consider the Jets another possibility, and I'm not yet ready to rule out a move up by the Eagles to take him. Chip Kelly thinks really highly of Mariota, he's a perfect fit for his system and the trio of Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow is far from a sure thing from a durability and on-field performance standpoint. I also think the Rams are a long-shot candidate to move up for Mariota.
3
Dante Fowler Jr. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 261POS: DE
Analysis: I think this comes down to Fowler (the No. 7 player on my board), Leonard Williams (No. 2) or Amari Cooper (No. 3). I'm going with Fowler because I think he makes the most sense in terms of need. Williams would fit both in Gus Bradley's base 4-3 defense as a D-tackle and the many three-man fronts they run as a defensive end, and Cooper would provide a No. 1 target for an offense and a young QB in Blake Bortles that really need one. But they need a pass-rusher more, with interior D-linemen such as Tyson Alualu and Jared Odrick and receivers such as Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee already on the roster, and Fowler's ability to play both on the line and as an outside linebacker makes him a perfect fit in the Leo edge-rusher role in Bradley's scheme.
4
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: It'd be a tough call here between Cooper and Leonard Williams. Williams would be a 3-technique defensive tackle for the Raiders in their 4-3 defense, and they need one, but they need a wide receiver more. Michael Crabtree is on only a one-year deal and isn't a long-term solution, and Cooper projects as a No. 1 receiver. He is as polished a wide receiver as you'll see coming out of college with his separation skills and route-running savvy, and he's a big-play threat as well with good speed and run-after-catch ability. Oakland needs to surround second-year QB Derek Carr with some weapons.
5
Shane Ray Washington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 245POS: OLB
Analysis: I expect Washington will be looking to trade back and add picks, and in this scenario, the team could find potential trade partners like the Bears or Browns looking to move up to draft Leonard Williams. I think that a trade back is the Redskins' best option, because they could likely fill their biggest need -- edge rusher -- several picks later, including with Ray. But absent a trade, I think the Redskins will be looking to take an edge rusher here. Randy Gregory is the perfect fit from a football standpoint, but I don't think they can afford to take a character risk with this pick. That leaves Ray as the next-best available player at the position, and while there's some concern about his ability to rush from a two-point stance and drop into coverage, he has elite first-step quickness and was very productive at getting to the quarterback at Missouri.
6
Todd Gurley New York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: GeorgiaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 222POS: RB
Analysis: Now that Gurley is cleared from a medical standpoint, I think he's going to go high. Maybe not this high, but I do think this pick would make sense. The Jets' biggest need is at quarterback, but they won't be able to find one in this scenario, and having an elite back like Gurley would provide help for an offense that won't be getting above-average quarterback play -- and new general manager Mike Maccagnan saw firsthand with Arian Foster in Houston the impact an elite running back can have. Other options for the Jets here include WR Kevin White, OL Brandon Scherff and edge rushers Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley. There was a time when I thought Gurley would last until the 20s, but I don't think that's the case anymore.
7
Leonard Williams Chicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 302POS: DE
Analysis: To be clear: Williams dropping to No. 7 here has nothing to do with my opinion of him as a player. He's the No. 2 prospect on my board and I've had him ranked as one of the top players in this class since the preseason. But this scenario does show how he has the potential to drop a little bit if he gets out of the top two picks based on the needs of teams picking third through seventh. He wouldn't fill a huge need for the Bears, but at this point he's too good of a value for them to pass up, especially given how bad their defense has been the past two seasons. The Chicago Bears ranked 31st in the league in scoring defense? That's just not right. Williams is an impact run-stopper and above-average interior pass-rusher who can play multiple roles in different schemes. If Williams isn't available here, then WR Kevin White would be the pick.
8
Randy Gregory Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: OLB
Analysis: The Falcons really need to improve their pass rush, and while Gregory presents some off-field concerns, including a positive marijuana test at the combine, I think Atlanta could be willing to take the risk with him. He has the length that new Falcons coach Dan Quinn wants in an edge rusher, to go with excellent quickness and explosiveness. Vic Beasley is another possibility here. I'm not as high on Beasley as some other evaluators -- and the Falcons might be one of the others.
9
Brandon Scherff New York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 319POS: OT
Analysis: Giants fans are probably getting sick of this pick, as I've had Scherff going No. 9 to the Giants in four consecutive mock drafts now. But he's a great fit because of his toughness, versatility and strength as a run-blocker. I also considered cornerback Trae Waynes here, and while Kevin White wouldn't fill a need, he'd be a good value here and would give the Giants a very talented tandem at receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. for the foreseeable future. Lastly, if Gurley gets to this spot, he's an intriguing option for the Giants.
10
Kevin White St. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: West VirginiaClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 215POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams really need a No. 1 receiver, and this scenario breaks well for them with White falling all the way to No. 10. He has a great combination of size and speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine), and is a one-on-one matchup problem in the red zone and on vertical routes. They also could consider an offensive lineman here, with Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers all possibilities, depending on who is left on the board when they pick.
Jameis Winston Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14)COLLEGE: Florida StateClass: SophHT: 6-3WT: 231POS: QB
Analysis: No surprise here. I have Winston as the top-ranked player on my board, and I believe he will be the first overall pick by the Bucs on April 30. Tampa Bay has to get its quarterback of the future out of this selection, and while Winston does bring with him some off-field risks, I give him the edge as a player over Marcus Mariota. In the areas that matter most in projecting QBs to the next level -- including reading defenses, going through progressions, anticipating throws and delivering the ball accurately -- he's one of the best prospects I've evaluated in the past 10 years.
2
Marcus Mariota Tennessee Titans (2-14)COLLEGE: OregonClass: JrHT: 6-3WT: 222POS: QB
Analysis: This is a tough pick to make. If the Titans don't receive a trade offer they like at this spot, I feel like they're more likely to take a player other than Mariota (USC's Leonard Williams would be a perfect fit in Ray Horton's hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive scheme). But I'll slot Mariota here in accordance with the Mel Kiper "no trades" mock draft rule, with the idea that I believe a team will move up to take him at No. 2. It makes sense for the Chargers to trade Philip Rivers for the second pick if they don't think they can retain Rivers beyond this year, especially given Rivers' experience with Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt. I consider the Jets another possibility, and I'm not yet ready to rule out a move up by the Eagles to take him. Chip Kelly thinks really highly of Mariota, he's a perfect fit for his system and the trio of Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow is far from a sure thing from a durability and on-field performance standpoint. I also think the Rams are a long-shot candidate to move up for Mariota.
3
Dante Fowler Jr. Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13)COLLEGE: FloridaClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 261POS: DE
Analysis: I think this comes down to Fowler (the No. 7 player on my board), Leonard Williams (No. 2) or Amari Cooper (No. 3). I'm going with Fowler because I think he makes the most sense in terms of need. Williams would fit both in Gus Bradley's base 4-3 defense as a D-tackle and the many three-man fronts they run as a defensive end, and Cooper would provide a No. 1 target for an offense and a young QB in Blake Bortles that really need one. But they need a pass-rusher more, with interior D-linemen such as Tyson Alualu and Jared Odrick and receivers such as Allen Robinson and Marqise Lee already on the roster, and Fowler's ability to play both on the line and as an outside linebacker makes him a perfect fit in the Leo edge-rusher role in Bradley's scheme.
4
Amari Cooper Oakland Raiders (3-13)COLLEGE: AlabamaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 211POS: WR
Analysis: It'd be a tough call here between Cooper and Leonard Williams. Williams would be a 3-technique defensive tackle for the Raiders in their 4-3 defense, and they need one, but they need a wide receiver more. Michael Crabtree is on only a one-year deal and isn't a long-term solution, and Cooper projects as a No. 1 receiver. He is as polished a wide receiver as you'll see coming out of college with his separation skills and route-running savvy, and he's a big-play threat as well with good speed and run-after-catch ability. Oakland needs to surround second-year QB Derek Carr with some weapons.
5
Shane Ray Washington Redskins (4-12)COLLEGE: MissouriClass: JrHT: 6-2WT: 245POS: OLB
Analysis: I expect Washington will be looking to trade back and add picks, and in this scenario, the team could find potential trade partners like the Bears or Browns looking to move up to draft Leonard Williams. I think that a trade back is the Redskins' best option, because they could likely fill their biggest need -- edge rusher -- several picks later, including with Ray. But absent a trade, I think the Redskins will be looking to take an edge rusher here. Randy Gregory is the perfect fit from a football standpoint, but I don't think they can afford to take a character risk with this pick. That leaves Ray as the next-best available player at the position, and while there's some concern about his ability to rush from a two-point stance and drop into coverage, he has elite first-step quickness and was very productive at getting to the quarterback at Missouri.
6
Todd Gurley New York Jets (4-12)COLLEGE: GeorgiaClass: JrHT: 6-0WT: 222POS: RB
Analysis: Now that Gurley is cleared from a medical standpoint, I think he's going to go high. Maybe not this high, but I do think this pick would make sense. The Jets' biggest need is at quarterback, but they won't be able to find one in this scenario, and having an elite back like Gurley would provide help for an offense that won't be getting above-average quarterback play -- and new general manager Mike Maccagnan saw firsthand with Arian Foster in Houston the impact an elite running back can have. Other options for the Jets here include WR Kevin White, OL Brandon Scherff and edge rushers Randy Gregory and Vic Beasley. There was a time when I thought Gurley would last until the 20s, but I don't think that's the case anymore.
7
Leonard Williams Chicago Bears (5-11)COLLEGE: USCClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 302POS: DE
Analysis: To be clear: Williams dropping to No. 7 here has nothing to do with my opinion of him as a player. He's the No. 2 prospect on my board and I've had him ranked as one of the top players in this class since the preseason. But this scenario does show how he has the potential to drop a little bit if he gets out of the top two picks based on the needs of teams picking third through seventh. He wouldn't fill a huge need for the Bears, but at this point he's too good of a value for them to pass up, especially given how bad their defense has been the past two seasons. The Chicago Bears ranked 31st in the league in scoring defense? That's just not right. Williams is an impact run-stopper and above-average interior pass-rusher who can play multiple roles in different schemes. If Williams isn't available here, then WR Kevin White would be the pick.
8
Randy Gregory Atlanta Falcons (6-10)COLLEGE: NebraskaClass: JrHT: 6-4WT: 235POS: OLB
Analysis: The Falcons really need to improve their pass rush, and while Gregory presents some off-field concerns, including a positive marijuana test at the combine, I think Atlanta could be willing to take the risk with him. He has the length that new Falcons coach Dan Quinn wants in an edge rusher, to go with excellent quickness and explosiveness. Vic Beasley is another possibility here. I'm not as high on Beasley as some other evaluators -- and the Falcons might be one of the others.
9
Brandon Scherff New York Giants (6-10)COLLEGE: IowaClass: SrHT: 6-4WT: 319POS: OT
Analysis: Giants fans are probably getting sick of this pick, as I've had Scherff going No. 9 to the Giants in four consecutive mock drafts now. But he's a great fit because of his toughness, versatility and strength as a run-blocker. I also considered cornerback Trae Waynes here, and while Kevin White wouldn't fill a need, he'd be a good value here and would give the Giants a very talented tandem at receiver with Odell Beckham Jr. for the foreseeable future. Lastly, if Gurley gets to this spot, he's an intriguing option for the Giants.
10
Kevin White St. Louis Rams (6-10)COLLEGE: West VirginiaClass: SrHT: 6-2WT: 215POS: WR
Analysis: The Rams really need a No. 1 receiver, and this scenario breaks well for them with White falling all the way to No. 10. He has a great combination of size and speed (4.35-second 40-yard dash at the combine), and is a one-on-one matchup problem in the red zone and on vertical routes. They also could consider an offensive lineman here, with Brandon Scherff, La'el Collins and Ereck Flowers all possibilities, depending on who is left on the board when they pick.
