Post by thebigragu on Feb 26, 2016 12:38:38 GMT -5
A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election except for one in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.
The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
This is almost too much to believe,” he told audience members described by the student paper as nervously laughing. But he is convinced his model won’t be wrong.
“Take it to the bank,” Norpoth confidently suggested.
Norpoth, a 1974 University of Michigan Ph.D. recipient who specializes in electoral behavior alignment, said his crystal ball also shows a 61-percent chance that the Republican nominee — Trump or not — will win the 2016 presidential election.
The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote.
Norpoth’s general election formula measures candidates’ performances in primaries and caucuses to gauge party unity and voter excitement. It also focuses on certain patterns in electoral cycles. One major assumption is that the party which has just held the presidency for two consecutive terms is less likely to win a third term.
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.
In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.
The professor said he has used the model in recent times to predict Bill Clinton’s victories as well as George W. Bush’s and Barack Obama’s
Read more: dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/#ixzz41IS9CBPI
