If fired, Rex Ryan leaves the Jets in bad shape

Go to the link on this article, the graphics in the article illustrate what has happened to the Jets in the last six years

www.washingtonpost.com/news/fancy-stats/wp/2014/12/21/if-fired-rex-ryan-leaves-the-jets-in-bad-shape/

The Washington Post

Monday, December 22 2014

If fired, Rex Ryan leaves the Jets in bad shape
By Neil Greenberg



New York Jets Coach Rex Ryan is on the hot seat, but don’t expect him to change.

“I’m just going to be myself,” he said, via ESPN.com. “I’m not dead yet.”

He’s right: he will likely have plenty of opportunities if he decides to take a job in media following the end of his coaching career. but what about the Jets? Are they dead? Or does it just look like Ryan killed the franchise?

For example, when Ryan took over the team the Jets were coming off a 9-7 season where, according to the Simple Rating System, they were 0.2 points per game above average. The following season, Ryan’s debut, they finished second in AFC East and made the AFC championship game. They were 8.6 points per game better than the average team that year and would do nothing but spiral downward since.

The swan dive has be fueled on the offensive side of the ball, where the team has been 4.7 points per game or worse offensively than an average team for three straight seasons.

The biggest drop-off, not surprisingly, was from 2011 to 2012, which saw Mark Sanchez continue his slide as a starting quarterback, only to be replaced by Geno Smith.

The by-product of below-average quarterbacking is the receivers don’t look good either. In fact, according to the game charters at Pro Football Focus, the highest rated Jets’ receiver taking at least half of the team’s snaps is free-agent acquisition Eric Decker (plus-1.1 rating). He ranks 30th among the 77 qualified wide receivers. The next highest rated wideout on the team is Jeremy Kerley (minus-5.7, 62nd).

Of course, Ryan isn’t known for his offensive talents, but the defense has also suffered under his watch and has regressed each season.

And unlike the offensive side of the ball, there is talent here. Sheldon Richardson was named AP defensive rookie of the year last season and continues playing at a high level this year, making 30 stops against the run and pressuring the opposing quarterback on 45 plays. Muhammad Wilkerson, arguably the team’s best player, has missed three games to injury but was still on of the league’s best pass rushers, ranking 27th among all 74 3-4 defensive ends for Pro Football Focus’ “Pass Rushing Productivity” rating.

The pass coverage has suffered since cornerback Darrelle Revis left, but the defense still slid when he was on the roster in 2012. Safety Jaiquawn Jarrett has been a bright spot for New York this season, limiting opposing quarterbacks to just a 44.6 passer rating on targets thrown into his coverage. Fellow safety Calvin Pryor has allowed just 0.21 yards per snap in coverage, fifth fewest among 86 safeties playing at least a quarter of their teams snaps.

Yet despite these tools at his disposal, the Jets still allowed the seventh most points per drive (2.1) in the league under Ryan this season.

So, maybe the Jets aren’t dead, but they certainly are on life support after six seasons under Ryan. Now we wait to see if the next coach can bring this storied franchise back to respectability.