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Post by jetstream23 on May 7, 2017 15:23:07 GMT -5
I have this sinking feeling that the Jets are going to do just enough in 2017 to find themselves on the outside of the Top 3-5 picks in the 2018 Draft. They will be bad, no doubt about it, but I can see them scraping together a similar win total to 2016 and ending up with something like the 6th or 7th pick.
IF we make the assumption that the Jets will need to move up to the Top 1 or 2 in order to get a QB they covet (similar to the Wentz, Goff draft and Philly, LA moving up) then two questions...
1. How much do we think it will cost?
- and -
2. How much are you willing to give up?
LA Moving Up
Philly Moving Up
It's this Philly trade with Cleveland that seems to set a bad precedent with me. Philly wasn't moving up to #1 overall, they were going to #2 and already had a Top 10 pick. They gave up several early/mid round picks in 2016, a 1st Rounder in 2017, and then give up another 2nd rounder in 2018. THAT is a lot. If the Jets want to move up to #1 in 2018 from somewhere around 6, 7 or 8, I think we need to plan on losing multiple 1st and/or 2nd rounders over the coming years. This could be the reason that Macc trading back several times this year and pocketed 9 young players + a 5th rounder in 2018. He may already be planning for the Jets to only select 3 or 4 players next year if they're going to make a power move up to the top. I could see the Jets sending their 2018 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 5th + 2019 1st and maybe more if they want to get up there.
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Post by Paradis on May 7, 2017 16:25:25 GMT -5
IF we make the assumption that the Jets will need to move up to the Top 1 or 2 in order to get a QB they covet (similar to the Wentz, Goff draft and Philly, LA moving up) then two questions... Let's presume we end up in the 5-10 range to be fair. Personally i think 3-5 is just as likely, but let's play conservative. A lot can change in the next 6 months, but I have good feeling there'll be no less than 3-4 QBs as early RND 1 prospects. Not the Watson/Mahomes variety either -- we're talking the Winston/Mariota stuff. More like 4-5 if you include the former caliber. What's my point? I don't know if we need to mortgage the farm to move up. We'll probably have to sell 2019, but even at pick 7, one need only to move up to 3-4 spots to get the guy. |
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Post by Gunnails on May 7, 2017 18:49:59 GMT -5
If we need to trade up for the QB we want, we will get out bid by another team most likely.
the Jets must have no more wins then 3.
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Post by sec.101row23 on May 8, 2017 7:57:08 GMT -5
IF we make the assumption that the Jets will need to move up to the Top 1 or 2 in order to get a QB they covet (similar to the Wentz, Goff draft and Philly, LA moving up) then two questions... Let's presume we end up in the 5-10 range to be fair. Personally i think 3-5 is just as likely, but let's play conservative. A lot can change in the next 6 months, but I have good feeling there'll be no less than 3-4 QBs as early RND 1 prospects. Not the Watson/Mahomes variety either -- we're talking the Winston/Mariota stuff. More like 4-5 if you include the former caliber. What's my point? I d on't know if we need to mortgage the farm to move up. We'll probably have to sell 2019, but even at pick 7, one need only to move up to 3-4 spots to get the guy. Totally disagree. Look at how much Chicago gave up to move from 3 to 2. It's going to cost a lot, it always does when a QB is involved. You just have to do it to ensure you get the guy you want. I have no problem doing it because it's necessary. When it is all said and done I'm not sure there isn't only 2 maybe 3 guys that will be worthy of a top 5 selection next year, and of those guys I'm sure the Jets will like one guy a lot more than the others. Hopefully Kizer and Watson play well this year and thus eliminating two QB needy teams. Competition also increases the cost of moving up. IMO aside from the Jets, you have Buffalo, San Fran, Jacksonville, San Diego maybe Cleveland and Arizona all looking to draft a QB high next year. So the cost will be high, but it is what it is, you just have to pay it. Unless it happens organically, which based on the Jets history just never happens, a lot of picks will need to be traded away to get the QB. |
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Post by jetstream23 on May 8, 2017 10:27:26 GMT -5
I agree that it will be worth the exorbitant price and that there will be SIGNIFICANT competition to move up. There are at least two teams (Cleveland, Buffalo) with multiple 1st rounders next year. I had suggested a couple months ago that the Jets Draft strategy in 2017 should be to trade back from #6 and not get a team's 2nd rounder, but get a 2018 1st rounder. They likely could have done that with Jamal Adams sitting at #6, but maybe there just wasn't a good enough offer.
I'm win Gun. 3 wins....no more.
Jets need to be in the Top 3 with the hope they could move to 1 or 2 if necessary.
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Post by sec.101row23 on May 8, 2017 10:37:20 GMT -5
I agree that it will be worth the exorbitant price and that there will be SIGNIFICANT competition to move up. There are at least two teams (Cleveland, Buffalo) with multiple 1st rounders next year. I had suggested a couple months ago that the Jets Draft strategy in 2017 should be to trade back from #6 and not get a team's 2nd rounder, but get a 2018 1st rounder. They likely could have done that with Jamal Adams sitting at #6, but maybe there just wasn't a good enough offer. I'm win Gun. 3 wins....no more. Jets need to be in the Top 3 with the hope they could move to 1 or 2 if necessary. Actually depends on who is drafting 1 and 2. If they are QB needy they likely won't be trading out of the pick. |
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Post by Paradis on May 8, 2017 12:32:26 GMT -5
Let's presume we end up in the 5-10 range to be fair. Personally i think 3-5 is just as likely, but let's play conservative. A lot can change in the next 6 months, but I have good feeling there'll be no less than 3-4 QBs as early RND 1 prospects. Not the Watson/Mahomes variety either -- we're talking the Winston/Mariota stuff. More like 4-5 if you include the former caliber. What's my point? I d on't know if we need to mortgage the farm to move up. We'll probably have to sell 2019, but even at pick 7, one need only to move up to 3-4 spots to get the guy. Totally disagree. Look at how much Chicago gave up to move from 3 to 2. It's going to cost a lot, it always does when a QB is involved. You just have to do it to ensure you get the guy you want. I have no problem doing it because it's necessary. When it is all said and done I'm not sure there isn't only 2 maybe 3 guys that will be worthy of a top 5 selection next year, and of those guys I'm sure the Jets will like one guy a lot more than the others. Hopefully Kizer and Watson play well this year and thus eliminating two QB needy teams. Competition also increases the cost of moving up. IMO aside from the Jets, you have Buffalo, San Fran, Jacksonville, San Diego maybe Cleveland and Arizona all looking to draft a QB high next year. So the cost will be high, but it is what it is, you just have to pay it. Unless it happens organically, which based on the Jets history just never happens, a lot of picks will need to be traded away to get the QB. I'm not going to overtly disagree but I think you're painting some of the worst case scenario stuff. We traded up for Sanchez for a pocket of ball-hair. Who's looking, how many QB's, flavour of the draft, situational needs of the teams involved are all in play. I think darnold and Rosen declaring, combined with Allen Falk and even Jackson will help drop the price down a few bucks. Hope anyways. |
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Post by ryu79 on May 8, 2017 23:48:33 GMT -5
Great point. We need the underclassmen to stay on trajectory, stay healthy and declare...
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Post by JStokes on May 9, 2017 13:39:17 GMT -5
Let's presume we end up in the 5-10 range to be fair. Personally i think 3-5 is just as likely, but let's play conservative. A lot can change in the next 6 months, but I have good feeling there'll be no less than 3-4 QBs as early RND 1 prospects. Not the Watson/Mahomes variety either -- we're talking the Winston/Mariota stuff. More like 4-5 if you include the former caliber. What's my point? I d on't know if we need to mortgage the farm to move up. We'll probably have to sell 2019, but even at pick 7, one need only to move up to 3-4 spots to get the guy. Totally disagree. Look at how much Chicago gave up to move from 3 to 2. It's going to cost a lot, it always does when a QB is involved. You just have to do it to ensure you get the guy you want. I have no problem doing it because it's necessary. When it is all said and done I'm not sure there isn't only 2 maybe 3 guys that will be worthy of a top 5 selection next year, and of those guys I'm sure the Jets will like one guy a lot more than the others. Hopefully Kizer and Watson play well this year and thus eliminating two QB needy teams. Competition also increases the cost of moving up. IMO aside from the Jets, you have Buffalo, San Fran, Jacksonville, San Diego maybe Cleveland and Arizona all looking to draft a QB high next year. So the cost will be high, but it is what it is, you just have to pay it. Unless it happens organically, which based on the Jets history just never happens, a lot of picks will need to be traded away to get the QB. But the Bears have been widely panned for making that move and giving up way way too much. _ |
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Post by Deleted on May 10, 2017 10:34:11 GMT -5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from prior move ups. Why? Because the class of QB next year is potentially going to be much better then even the Winston/Mariotta class.
The price to move up for an Andrew Luck/Petyon Manning type QB (meaning a perceived "sure fire" franchise QB) will be a lot more than the cost to move up for a guy like Goff....who was nowhere close to being a sure thing.
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Post by Lithfan on May 10, 2017 15:07:10 GMT -5
It's hard to draw any conclusions from prior move ups. Why? Because the class of QB next year is potentially going to be much better then even the Winston/Mariotta class. The price to move up for an Andrew Luck/Petyon Manning type QB (meaning a perceived "sure fire" franchise QB) will be a lot more than the cost to move up for a guy like Goff....who was nowhere close to being a sure thing. On the other hand, if there are 4 or 5 top tier QBs in the draft, that might help to moderate the cost somewhat. Bottom line is you never really know -- each year the QB market changes. If we lose 13 or more this year, we should be in great shape to get our guy. Another 5 or 6 win season, and it could cost a small fortune to move up of there is one guy we feel like we have to have. |
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Post by DDNYjets on May 11, 2017 8:59:10 GMT -5
Right now I say we give up everything we have to in order to move up. All we are really giving away are future first and second round busts, assuming we would pick something outside of DL. Overreacting? Im just going by our recent history.
Bottom line is Woody needs to demand the tank. Fire the coaching staff if need be. If his fellow genetic lottery winner Irsay could have the brains to do it then Woody should.
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