Ranking the QBs 1-5 (LONG READ - GET A COFFEE)

After reviewing QB rankings from 2010-2015, it's clear nobody has a clue...  I'm kidding of course, but it's surprising (or not) how many times "popular" rankings are not good predictors of how these kids pan out in the NFL. Too many boards across the nation had Gabbert besting Newton in 2011 for example. Is it really that hard to figure out? Maybe, or maybe not... With that said, here's what I'm seeing. Care to share you thoughts?






1) Paxton Lynch....  I'm a fan of what i've seen. In fact, I have a hard time seeing what's not to like. I see criticisms about ball placement and accuracy and i'm thinking - Is that a cut and paste response from a generic template? He's not flawless and polished like Andrew Luck obviously, but then again - what could you expect developing in Fuente's system? He still demonstrated next level passer ability, and a propensity to make big time throws under duress. 

SEASON  CMP   ATT   YDS    CMP%   TD  INT  RAT 
2015       296   443    3776   66.8   28   4   157.5     
2014       259   413    3031   62.7   22   9   137.6
2013       203   349    2056   58.2   9   10   110.4 

The numbers speak for themselves. He shows fantastic mobility for a QB his size; can make plays with his feet AND throw on the run into tight windows. I keep using Aaron Rodgers as a measuring stick in style and ability. He's got plenty of arm talent, got grip and rip with ease, while also showing great touch on back-shoulder/outside timing throws... I don't see a slave to the system. He reads defenses, keeps his downfield and doesn't stare down receivers. Only runs when he has to. If you consider how he relied on his legs earlier in college, his transition to a pure passer went exceptionally well in my opinion... But most importantly, Lynch doesn't make boneheaded plays. Only 4 INTs on the year (2 of which were WR deflections). The biggest issues I saw was as the year wore on? Lynch losing confidence making those big downfield passes -- Memphis simply did not have playmakers who could make those catches/plays.

A CLOSER LOOK: At one point, he was ranked  as the #1 QB going into the final stretch of the season. So I took a look at WHY he tumbled down media boards--

Navy: Not his sharpest game, footwork was a little sloppy in this one. Still made a number of big throws, but did end up committing his first "bad" INT of the season. It was a team loss, defense was PATHETIC and way too fumbles/drops by the skill players.
Houston: Played a strong game for 3 quarters. Better receivers would have made this a no contest. HOU creeped back and the game got away from them. 
Temple: Not a bad game, Temple's defense came to play and harassed Lynch all day. Still, he managed to avoid major mistakes. Couple bad drops would have put Memphis on top early. If that's what a "bad game" looks like, then sign me up. 
Auburn: A legit "meh" game. Felt like a Jets game in the Schotty era; predictable runs on 1st/2nd, receivers running 5 yard outs on 3rd & 8, etc. Didn't make bone-headed plays, plagued by 2 dropped would be TDs. Unfortunate this performance came about when it did. Maybe not if you're jets fan.

What to take away from those games: While Lynch didn't have stellar games against Auburn or Navy, none of these performances were as bad as the media lets on, and quite frankly none of them showed terrible decision making (like Goff vs USC for example). What I took away from this is that Memphis Offense was not able to adjust and make plays outside of their system when teams started to figure them out this year. Lynch made a handful of big time NFL throws and it was more than his players could handle. Their WRs and RBs were groomed for one thing and one thing only; Fuente's quick hit system... 1 guy with down field chops would have changed the outcome of at least 2 of those games easily IMO. 





2) Carson Wentz... Probably the most natural passer in the draft. Looks comfortable in the pocket, moves reasonably well under pressure. Has a cerebral early-Palmer vibe to the way he diagnosis defense after the snap. Seems capable of playing situational ball as well as any pro-prospect (hell of finish in the N. Iowa game)... I'd go as far as saying there's no system Wentz can't conform to when he's drafted. I think he could play as well in an Arians offense as he could in a Kelly quick-hit style O.... Regardless of playing FCS football, I wouldn't fault a team for ranking him number #1. He demonstrates underrated Athleticism and while his arm isn't a canon - I love his long-ball game for the most part, especially when he pushes the ball down the center of the field.

His outside deep passes at times were not so pretty, however. Needs to work on ball placement and location when he's hitting guys running 9s down the line. That's a big part of the NFL game IMO, and he missed a few of those. I'm impressed by his poise and vision, but when he's forced into 2nd and 3rd reads, the quality in location deteriorates. Anticipation at the next level is going to be steep learning curve, and while that seems obvious, I think it's worth noting that he struggled at times when he played against talented front 7s, most noticeably vs SD (south dakota). Wentz looked out of rhythm at times when the easy throws weren't there. South Dakota's defense was the closest thing I've seen (from what's available) to a stout Defense. South Dakota State in 2014 also did a good job of not giving WRs free release and forced Wentz to throw into coverage. 


YR      GP   YDS   TD     COMP  ATT   PCT   INT 
2015    7    1651  17    130    208  62.5   4   
2014   14   3111  25    228    358  63.7   10  


Numbers are there, and so is the tape. He deserves the praise he's been receiving, but I don't think it's slam dunk that he becomes the next big thing. You have to get dirty and grind out tough games against tougher defenses. He didn't have to do a lot of that, which is why i favor Lynch over Wentz. I saw more big boy football from Lynch. 






3)Jared Goff..... To me, he's not even the conversation with the 1st two. He's got a ton of arm talent, and makes huge throws -- but a significant liability in the decision making department. There's too much Cutler in his game. Turns-overs are going to be a problem with Goff if can't stop making mental mistakes. While he does move around in the pocket well, the pressure effects his performance, noticeably. He keeps his eyes downfield, but starts forcing the ball when he's flushed out the pocket. When the Oline does their job however, he operates pretty efficiently and steps into some dime throws. 

SEASON    CMP ATT YDS   CMP% TD INT  
2015         341 529 4719 64.5    43 13 
2014         316 509 3973 62.1    35 7 
2013         320 531 3508 60.3    18 10

When his accuracy and touch flash for stretches of time, he looks really good. Enough to earn him round 1 hype (apparently) - but coaching staffs better be confident they can phase out the negative plays. If I was a GM, i'd be hesitant before round 2.






4) Brandon Allen.... I feel like Allen could sneak up boards and wind up being drafted in the 2nd round. He's a gritty QB who plays to the whistle, can make all the throws, and doesn't buckle under pressure. With the right support, he might end up developing into a starter that can can do more than hold down the fort. There's not a lot in the negative column for Allen when you size him up -- beyond size itself of course. Much has been made about the prolific running game featured in Arkansas' offence, but Allen proved on many occasions that he could stand on his own two feet and win games. The game vs Miss St was a real treat to watch. That game alone could challenge scouts to take another look at their notes... So many big throws.

SEASON  CMP  ATT  YDS    CMP%  TD INT
   2015   244   370   3440  65.9    30  8 
   2014   190   339   2285  56.0    20 5 
   2013   128   258   1552  49.6    13 10

I'd say his progression is deserving of acknowledgment. I like Allen's ability to adjust make throws to his 2nd or 3rd read. His accuracy doesn't go out the window, like Goff's did at times. If you look at some of the throws he made in the Ole Miss game, you start to wonder how he's not in the conversation with the other guys (btw if you haven't watched the Ole Miss vs Arkansas game - you haven't lived). It's a little different making those wild throws versus NFL secondaries though... Probably won't know what you've got till he's in camp. 




5) Connor Cook... Good size, good arm, good release -- all the boxes you'd like to check off when looking at QB. Accuracy is above average when he has a clean pocket. Seems smart, game isn't too big for him. But there's no depth here. No grit in his game. He's operating like it's business, which is fine but you need a leader and he appears content to just go through the motions in a game. Low risk throws, getting rid of the ball when he smells pressure. It's all very uninspired at times from Cook. Anticipation comes and goes. He makes dime throws, then misses floaters. I feel like I can't trust Cook to play beyond his means when he has to. I won't take away the efficiency and precision that flashes because he'll grind out the clock in ball control mode - and there's a place for that in the NFL. Would I pick him to lead a franchise? No... But I would consider him an Alex Smith kind of role if makes it that far. So long as the supporting cast is there, He could help win games, just don't ask him to win games for you.

SEASON  CMP  ATT  YDS     CMP%  TD INT
2015       229  408   3131  56.1    24  7 
2014       212  365   3214  58.1    24  8 
2013       223  380   2755  58.7    22  6

Those are stagnant numbers, suggesting Connor plateaued as a game manager. He needed show something to validate last year's hype - and it didn't happen. 

Beyond that -- I found there to be a significant difference between timing throws vs adjusting to hitting a guy in stride against coverage. His timing throws are what made him top tier discussional piece. But improvised/adjusted throws based on reading defenses were not very good. My biggest concern is it appears to be mental. Mechanically he moves well, scans the field and sets his feet. But when he pulls the trigger its a 50/50 shot. Having to come back to the other side of the field and make a quick decision + throw - not good. And that's like half of what happens in the NFL. 

Wouldn't consider him before the 3rd to 4th round. You're looking at a game-manager who will spend the majority of his career being a transitional starter.

Missed the cut:

Dak Prescott.... I like Dak and love his evolution as a quarterback -- but you have to be OK with the potential of him peaking as a Seneca Wallace or Tavaris Jackson type of journeyman. I'm not ruling out the possibility he could surprise, but at present he hasn't shown what I would call NFL "moxy" in his touch and location passing anywhere beyond 10 yards. So much of his success has been via his ability (or the threat of) to run the ball to move the chains... And the reality is, he's not a good enough runner survive on his legs in the NFL. I see some Donovan McNabb to his game but the body of work as an accomplished passer isn't in the same tier as the former Eagle.