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Post by vicmill on Jan 16, 2015 12:27:40 GMT -5
The number of carries is a small component of effectiveness as running backs get older. 95% of running backs practically fall off the cliff when they hit 30, even lightly used ones. Look it up - the numbers are amazingly low just about any running back over 30. there are a few that buck the trend - Spiller will be 28 this summer, I would not expect to see the same player we've seen in the past going forward. No offense but you're way off. He's been in the league 5 years and has only had 668 carries b/c he didn't play much his rookie year and only played in half the games last year. In comparison DeMarco Murray has almost 1000 carries in 4 years and he's going to get double the rate Spiller does. Fred Jackson is 33 or 34 and he has 1200 carries. Which is low for his age but that's what's kept him in the league so long. Spiller has another good 3 years left in him if he stays healthy. The number of carries is a small component of effectiveness as running backs get older. 95% of running backs practically fall off the cliff when they hit 30, even lightly used ones. Look it up - the numbers are amazingly low just about any running back over 30. There are a few that buck the trend - Jackson is one and Curtis martin lead the league in rushing at 31 or 32 I think (and he had a high volume of carries), but they are few and far between. I wouldn't want to play those odds at 30; however, 28 is a completely different story. Lots of running backs are effective in their late 20s. |
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Post by bxjetfan on Jan 16, 2015 12:30:45 GMT -5
Would love to see Spiller here. Combine him with Ivory and have a real 1 - 2 punch that causes problems for a D . Problem is he's going to get top dollar as the top free agent back available. Cowboys just offered DeMarco Murray 4yrs/16 mil. Spiller gets hurt too, doubt he would get top dollar to be honest. He would be a good pickup. Dump that turd CJ too. |
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Post by jetswin on Jan 16, 2015 12:36:06 GMT -5
call me crazy I don't want RB's nearing 30...there's plenty of undiscovered talent out there and that's what we have a new GM for, this freakin' kid in Denver was undrafted and runs as hard as anyone I've seen in a while.
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Post by jetswin on Jan 16, 2015 12:37:04 GMT -5
...also we don't don't need a one or two year fix, we need a present and a future
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Post by sec.101row23 on Jan 16, 2015 12:39:23 GMT -5
There are a ton of potential free agent RBs this year.
Gore, Matthews, McFadden, Ingram, Moreno, Helu, Ridley, Vereen, Powell, Jaquizz Rodgers, Forestt, Daniel Thomas. Not a lot of great choices on that list. You just have to draft RBs, use them up, and draft some more.
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Post by jetstream23 on Jan 16, 2015 12:43:11 GMT -5
Spiller will be 28 this summer, I would not expect to see the same player we've seen in the past going forward.  |
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Post by joepnyj1 on Jan 16, 2015 12:44:57 GMT -5
I really like Roy Helu (at a discount) He is a proven pass catcher who can wreak havoc in open space.
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Post by jetstream23 on Jan 16, 2015 12:46:55 GMT -5
There are a ton of potential free agent RBs this year. Gore, Matthews, McFadden, Ingram, Moreno, Helu, Ridley, Vereen, Powell, Jaquizz Rodgers, Forestt, Daniel Thomas. Not a lot of great choices on that list. You just have to draft RBs, use them up, and draft some more. This is the complete opposite of what most people preach, but I'd consider trading down in Round 1 if Cooper and anyone else we like is gone, and then taking one of the top 2 RBs at the end of the 1st round. The Jets needs lots of help, not just one player, and if trading back could net us additional 2nd and 3rd round picks then I'd look to do something like Gurley at the end of the 1st and get QB prospect like Hundley at the top of the 2nd round, then start going after DBs, LBs, and linemen in the middle rounds while having additional picks. Just one approach. |
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Post by morite on Jan 16, 2015 12:49:14 GMT -5
...also we don't don't need a one or two year fix, we need a present and a future This... |
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Post by sec.101row23 on Jan 16, 2015 12:49:56 GMT -5
There are a ton of potential free agent RBs this year. Gore, Matthews, McFadden, Ingram, Moreno, Helu, Ridley, Vereen, Powell, Jaquizz Rodgers, Forestt, Daniel Thomas. Not a lot of great choices on that list. You just have to draft RBs, use them up, and draft some more. This is the complete opposite of what most people preach, but I'd consider trading down in Round 1 if Cooper and anyone else we like is gone, and then taking one of the top 2 RBs at the end of the 1st round. The Jets needs lots of help, not just one player, and if trading back could net us additional 2nd and 3rd round picks then I'd look to do something like Gurley at the end of the 1st and get QB prospect like Hundley at the top of the 2nd round, then start going after DBs, LBs, and linemen in the middle rounds while having additional picks. Just one approach. Trading down always sounds nice, it's just much easier said than done. There are a lot of really good RBs in this draft, one of them needs to be drafted. |
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Post by Jet Nut Sauce on Jan 16, 2015 12:50:30 GMT -5
Would love to see Spiller here. Combine him with Ivory and have a real 1 - 2 punch that causes problems for a D . Problem is he's going to get top dollar as the top free agent back available. No he won't. He had a bad year last year and was hurt the year before. He'll probably get between $4-$5 million per year. With a big signing bonus. He's not going cheap, he's the top FA RB this offseason. It's not a simple 4-5 mil deal. He's not going to sign for washed up Chris Johnson money, he's a much, much better player than that. He was hurt for the first time last year. Not the year before. He did not have a bad year last year, he ran for almost 1000 yards at 4.6 a pop. Along with 30+ receptions. The year before over 1200 yards at 6 per., with over 40 receptions. Think you have the wrong player. |
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Post by jetstream23 on Jan 16, 2015 12:55:11 GMT -5
This is the complete opposite of what most people preach, but I'd consider trading down in Round 1 if Cooper and anyone else we like is gone, and then taking one of the top 2 RBs at the end of the 1st round. The Jets needs lots of help, not just one player, and if trading back could net us additional 2nd and 3rd round picks then I'd look to do something like Gurley at the end of the 1st and get QB prospect like Hundley at the top of the 2nd round, then start going after DBs, LBs, and linemen in the middle rounds while having additional picks. Just one approach. What is the opposite of what most people think? Drafting RBs? Yes. There seems to be a trend in thinking that RBs are no longer worth using a 1st round pick. In general, I agree with that but have a slightly nuanced opinion. An elite RB is absolutely worth a high 1st round pick and has the ability to change a game. The question isn't about "worth," it's more about supply in that very good running backs seem to be more plentiful now than in the past, and they also do not last as long as other positions like QB, offensive line, etc. I see the RB strategy as getting them at 20, 21, 22 years old on a rookie contract for 4/5 years, then getting them that one big contract when they're about 25. After that, you let them go and find another. |
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Post by Bavarian on Jan 16, 2015 13:12:20 GMT -5
Would jump all over that given the opportunity. Ivory/Spiller/Powell/Daryl Richardson sign me up. Agree that he should come reasonably priced. Add in Mike Iupati to aid in the OLine run game for Spiller, draft a high WR to spread out the defense, and Fitzmagic to compete with Geno so that QB isn't a pure shitshow and I'll make sure my boner-pants are freshly ironed and ready for week 1 @ Buffalo. Orlando Franklin might be a better fit at LG as he's a bit lighter on his feet for the zone blocking Gailey will use. Also, I'm wondering if Ivory is now a bad fit as Chan doesn't run a power running game. I know one coach in Buffalo who'd like to have him but would you give him up to a division rival? Just thinking ahead. What else should we expect? |
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Post by joepnyj1 on Jan 16, 2015 13:13:31 GMT -5
There are a ton of potential free agent RBs this year. Gore, Matthews, McFadden, Ingram, Moreno, Helu, Ridley, Vereen, Powell, Jaquizz Rodgers, Forestt, Daniel Thomas. Not a lot of great choices on that list. You just have to draft RBs, use them up, and draft some more. This is the complete opposite of what most people preach, but I'd consider trading down in Round 1 if Cooper and anyone else we like is gone, and then taking one of the top 2 RBs at the end of the 1st round. The Jets needs lots of help, not just one player, and if trading back could net us additional 2nd and 3rd round picks then I'd look to do something like Gurley at the end of the 1st and get QB prospect like Hundley at the top of the 2nd round, then start going after DBs, LBs, and linemen in the middle rounds while having additional picks. Just one approach. I am liking it...makes sense. |
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Post by Bavarian on Jan 16, 2015 13:18:49 GMT -5
What is the opposite of what most people think? Drafting RBs? Yes. There seems to be a trend in thinking that RBs are no longer worth using a 1st round pick. In general, I agree with that but have a slightly nuanced opinion. An elite RB is absolutely worth a high 1st round pick and has the ability to change a game. The question isn't about "worth," it's more about supply in that very good running back seem to be more plentiful now than in the past, and they also do not last as long as other positions like QB, offensive line, etc. I see the RB strategy as getting them at 20, 21, 22 years old on a rookie contract for 4/5 years, then getting them that one big contract when they're about 25. After that, you let them go and find another. How about DeMarco Murray? We'll have the cash. And I would argue that RB might be more important to a team that won't have a QB. This draft is loaded with good RB's but not necessarily too many like Spiller. Gordon won't reach the 2nd IMO. I love Karlos Williams on the 3rd day. |
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