|
Post by adpz on Dec 15, 2014 9:54:25 GMT -5
It's annoying to lose a higher draft pick on an ugly, meaningless game. But drafting QBs at the top of the 1st round is hardly the sure-thing some seem to be assuming. Fact is, since 2000 the QBs drafted outside of the top 5 or even top 10 have had more success than those drafted highest. Look through the numbers in this interesting article to see the big picture: www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/nfl-draft-round-round-quarterback-dataAnd even just a quick list shows that drafting the RIGHT QB counts for more than drafting the 'best' QB. List of 1st round QB since 2001: Vick Harrington Carr Ramsey Palmer Leftwich Boller Grossman Eli Manning Rivers Big Ben (pick 11) JP Losman Smith Aaron Rogers (pick 24) Jason Campbell Vince Young Matt Leinart Jay Cutler (pick 11) JaMarcus Russell Brady Quinn Matt Ryan Joe Flacco (pick 18) Stafford Sanchez Josh Freeman Bradford Tebow Newton Locker Gabbert Ponder Luck Griffin Tanneyhill Weeden EJ Manuel Bortles Manziel Bridgewater 39 QB's - exactly five of which have done significant post-season winning. Four have won SB. Of those four, three were drafted outside the top 10. How many non-1st rounders since 2001 have gone to the SB? Three. How many have won? Two. When it comes down to it - it's a crapshoot. Since 1980, only four of the first QBs chosen have won a SB. That's 34 years. BOTTOM LINE: What really counts is to have the front office talent to identify the worthwhile player and then develop that player AND the team around him. Our problems are much bigger than picking 2nd vs 6th. If anything, the Jets may be better off following a Cowboys style path at this point. Investing in a top line by drafting and maybe moving Brick to RT if we can land a blue-chip OT. Build up the power running game. Switch D to a better-suited 4-3 scheme. Romo is no HOF'r. But he has good weapons and improved line play together with new NFL rules has transformed him from 'nearly done' to 'rejuvenated'. Geno is not even Romo, but he is okay on his feet and can likely develop further - possibly enough to be the game manager/seat holder until someone better comes along. Trying the desperation 'trade everything to anyone' QB-hunting strategy just gets you in Redskins-land. . .
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 15, 2014 10:02:19 GMT -5
i was going to post a similar detailed breakdown of how every jets qb since joe namath has sucked, but i did not want to be responsible for breaking the internent
|
|
|
Post by 2milehighJet on Dec 15, 2014 10:14:22 GMT -5
Agree with what you are saying, but this league is a win now, not win 5 years from now. Aside from Rodgers in GB, who has sat for a couple years before taking over in the past 6 years?
|
|
|
Post by gangrene on Dec 15, 2014 10:15:18 GMT -5
Romo is a borderline top fifteen qb, a gamer. I doubt he ever wins a super bowl but even so that quality a qb is not easy to find.
Do you really think Geno has a significantly higher ceiling than what we saw today ?
I think most front offices would settle for an andy dalton type qb. Even Mark Sanchez on a balanced and talented roster gets you to the playoffs. Mark Sanchez is never winning a Super Bowl. Respectability, it keeps their jobs but it's a rare qb that can give you a shot of being in the playoffs most seasons.
The Jets front office refuses to be brave, they are happy with mediocrity. Picking Geno Smith because he represented "good value" in the second round says everything you wanted to know about the Jets.
|
|
|
Post by adpz on Dec 15, 2014 10:28:22 GMT -5
I'm not saying 'stay the course' with Geno. I am saying, given the hand we are being dealt, there are other ways to build towards a winning team than switching QBs every year - espc. via the draft.
And alongside QB holes, this team has significant holes at other talent spots and especially in our front office - everything from drafting to building a winning culture.
And if you want some mediocre SB-winning QBs - there's more than a few. Mark Rypien, Hostetler, Brad Johnson and espc Trent Dilfer - all of whom have the same or greater number of victories than: Jim Kelly, Brett Favre, Peyton Manning and Kurt Warner.
Point is - go build a winning team and organization. There's no reason for the Jets (and fans) to hyper-focus on Mariota/Winston as the solution to all problems.
OT: Personally, I am still intrigued by Mike Glennon . . .
|
|
|
Post by Touchable on Dec 15, 2014 10:32:39 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure that we're all aware that neither Mariota or Winston are "sure things".
And who cares?
Why don't people seem to understand that QB prospects like Luck are EXTREMELY rare? They come around once every 15-20 years. And when they do come around, you better have the #1 overall pick. Because whoever is picking #1 is going to take the guy. You could offer your 1st round pick for the next 5 years to whoever is picking in the top spot and they'd laugh at you and tell you to go fuck yourself.
So again, who cares if Mariota isn't Andrew Luck? There's still no doubt that his upside is tremendous and he has the skill to be a legitimate franchise QB.
|
|
|
Post by adpz on Dec 15, 2014 10:37:33 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but I'm pretty sure that we're all aware that neither Mariota or Winston are "sure things". And who cares? Why don't people seem to understand that QB prospects like Luck are EXTREMELY rare? They come around once every 15-20 years. And when they do come around, you better have the #1 overall pick. Because whoever is picking #1 is going to take the guy. You could offer your 1st round pick for the next 5 years to whoever is picking in the top spot and they'd laugh at you and tell you to go fuck yourself. So again, who cares if Mariota isn't Andrew Luck? There's still no doubt that his upside is tremendous and he has the skill to be a legitimate franchise QB. If you're sitting in place to pick him - absolutely - go get him. I agree. But if you tell me we have to give up a 2nd this year and a 1st and 3rd or whatever next year - I think the odds just got pretty bad on it turning out well for the Jets. Washington and Cleveland have been trying the whack-a-mole strategy 'savior QB' model for years. Browns have TWO winning seasons since 2000. Skins have three. If you go back to 1999, Browns have drafted 4 QBs in the first round. Since 2002 Redskins have draft three QB in the first round.
|
|
|
Post by Sonny Werblin on Dec 15, 2014 10:42:25 GMT -5
You underestimate Romo. He has the highest career 4th Quarter rating among current NFL QBs. The OP makes more sense if you point out that Room was not highly rated in the draft.
|
|
|
Post by adpz on Dec 15, 2014 10:45:18 GMT -5
You underestimate Romo. He has the highest career 4th Quarter rating among current NFL QBs. The OP makes more sense if you point out that Room was not highly rated in the draft. Fair enough. I like Romo - I was always a supporter of his because he knows how to play football - even if his gunslinger side gets him into trouble. I don't really mean to compare Romo and Geno because they are very different QBs. I am mostly saying that a more realistic model to resusciating this franchise is doing something different than the 'savior QB' model. I don't want to see the Jets turn into the Browns . . .
|
|
|
Post by gangrene on Dec 15, 2014 10:46:33 GMT -5
I'm not saying 'stay the course' with Geno. I am saying, given the hand we are being dealt, there are other ways to build towards a winning team than switching QBs every year - espc. via the draft. And alongside QB holes, this team has significant holes at other talent spots and especially in our front office - everything from drafting to building a winning culture. I respect the logic of your idea but your approach is respectability, rebuild the oline, fill the holes and hope we have a great coach and a lot of luck. This approach will get us to the playoffs, it already has under Mark Sanchez. Forgive me if I want more. It goes back to the argument that the game is slanted now to the passing game. The odds of a Phil Simms- type QB winning a Super Bowl riding a good defense are extremely slim, much, much smaller than twenty years ago. Likewise the odds of drafting a top ten qb are very small... I get it. I just thing the fans are the ones who get shafted by the build the team approach and have a game manager back there. I don't have a crystal ball but I prefer to swing for the fences on a qb in the draft and aspire to dominance.
|
|
|
Post by Touchable on Dec 15, 2014 10:54:45 GMT -5
You underestimate Romo. He has the highest career 4th Quarter rating among current NFL QBs. The OP makes more sense if you point out that Room was not highly rated in the draft. Fair enough. I like Romo - I was always a supporter of his because he knows how to play football - even if his gunslinger side gets him into trouble. I don't really mean to compare Romo and Geno because they are very different QBs. I am mostly saying that a more realistic model to resusciating this franchise is doing something different than the 'savior QB' model. I don't want to see the Jets turn into the Browns . . . Well, we're well on our way to turning into the Browns or Raiders if we continue to middle along without a legitimate QB. Again, the Jets are rarely in position to be within striking distance of a highly touted QB in the draft. Even when we suck, we usually don't suck enough. We usually end up as some 5-11 or 6-10 team picking at the tailend of the Top 10 or just outside of it. We have the worst QB situation in the league. We're essentially guaranteed a Top 5 pick in a draft that features not one, but two potential franchise QB's slated to go in that area. So what's the excuse for not walking away with one of them? Who would honestly rather go into next year and potentially the next 2-3 years with a QB like Brian Hoyer or Matt Moore instead of Mariota or Winston?
|
|
|
Post by vin on Dec 15, 2014 10:56:39 GMT -5
You underestimate Romo. He has the highest career 4th Quarter rating among current NFL QBs. The OP makes more sense if you point out that Room was not highly rated in the draft. Fair enough. I like Romo - I was always a supporter of his because he knows how to play football - even if his gunslinger side gets him into trouble. I don't really mean to compare Romo and Geno because they are very different QBs. I am mostly saying that a more realistic model to resusciating this franchise is doing something different than the 'savior QB' model. I don't want to see the Jets turn into the Browns . . . Don't worry. The Jets have turned into the Raiders instead.
|
|
|
Post by adpz on Dec 15, 2014 11:00:33 GMT -5
Who would honestly rather go into next year and potentially the next 2-3 years with a QB like Brian Hoyer or Matt Moore instead of Mariota or Winston? We're not talking about Mariotta really. There is nothing that is going to pry him from Tampa's cold, dead hands. The Titans currently sit in the 2 slot. I get what you are saying, if it was Jax who might make a reaosonable trade with us. But it's not. The top two teams this year REALLY need QBs and are a virtual lock to not win another game. I doubt there is ANY trade either of them will consider. So realistically, the Jets have zero shot at either QB unless one falls - which is also unlikely. So, next plan up - because the Mariotta/Winston hunt is over as far as I can see.
|
|
|
Post by Sonny Werblin on Dec 15, 2014 11:01:25 GMT -5
For the past 3 seasons the jets have had one of the worst QB situations in the NFL, and the position will be even worse next season.
Thanks for the parting gift Rex.
|
|
|
Post by Touchable on Dec 15, 2014 11:03:53 GMT -5
Who would honestly rather go into next year and potentially the next 2-3 years with a QB like Brian Hoyer or Matt Moore instead of Mariota or Winston? We're not talking about Mariotta really. There is nothing that is going to pry him from Tampa's cold, dead hands. The Titans currently sit in the 2 slot. I get what you are saying, if it was Jax who might make a reaosonable trade with us. But it's not. The top two teams this year REALLY need QBs and are a virtual lock to not win another game. I doubt there is ANY trade either of them will consider. So realistically, the Jets have zero shot at either QB unless one falls - which is also unlikely. So, next plan up - because the Mariotta/Winston hunt is over as far as I can see. I agree that it's probably a lost cause. This seems like 2007 all over again. We won that meaningless, bullshit game against KC at the end of the year and it ended up being the difference between selecting at #3 (Matt Ryan) and #6 (Vernon Gholston). If the Jets are out of the Mariota/Winston sweepstakes, then at the very least we better land a kid like Amari Cooper to give us the stud receiver that we've been lacking for decades.
|
|